macro strategist Lynn AldenHe noted that there is no bullish trend on Bitcoin in 2022 and warned that BTC is still susceptible to a capitulation event.
Speaking in a new interview with Stansberry Research, Alden said: Bitcoin (BTC) He said he looked at the “Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)” to determine the overall trend. The PMI represents an economic indicator that aims to show the health of the manufacturing and service sectors.
“Bitcoin’s biggest bull has historically progressed, with only as many sample sizes as four of them: 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2020. These have occurred in environments of rising PMIs, which means economic acceleration. So, in general, the current price period type, bitcoin price It has not been a great period historically for…
Currently, Bitcoin is classified as a risk asset by most capital pools due to its volatility, so I am not particularly optimistic for the 2022 calendar year.”
of the United States Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) it currently stands at 58, a 9.38% drop from 64 in March 2021.
Alden emphasized that a falling PMI amid a tightening currency environment could act as a catalyst for a capitulation event.
“If you experience some kind of market turmoil, we could see capitulation similar to March 2020 or the fourth quarter of 2018, where the Fed is still trying to tighten into a falling PMI environment.
If such a capitulation does occur, I would consider it a buying opportunity. I don’t know if that will happen or not. We can definitely see a break below $30,000 in this kind of capitulation environment.”
Despite its bearish outlook for this calendar year, Alden also stated that in the long run, BTC is still on an uptrend.
“When I look at multiple years, say three to five years, I’m still structurally seeing Bitcoin bullish when I look at the ecosystem, I’m looking at what’s going on with the Lightning Network. In each cycle, infrastructure is built to absorb new types of capital.
First, it was peer-to-peer. At that time, they were the first exchanges to have problems with bank access. Then came more regulated exchanges, followed by more institutional-level protectors and larger pools of capital. I think that trend is still intact.”
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