Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s global director of macros, has updated his long-term forecasts for the leading crypto asset Bitcoin (BTC).
Timmer shared a long message on Twitter. in the seriesHe cited BTC analyst PlanB’s once-popular stock-to-flow model (S2F). The model in question is a model that tries to predict the price of Bitcoin based on supply shocks caused by halving events.
Timmer introduced an S2F-inspired supply model, as well as two other models that track internet and mobile adoption rates. According to Timmer’s modified model, Bitcoin could be around $63,778 by 2025, about a year after the next BTC halving. “It’s time to look at Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics” Timmer started by saying that the main problem with the S2F model is that the limited supply cannot direct the price on its own.
“I am not satisfied that limited supply alone will be a lasting driver for price.
Therefore, I created an S-curve model based on the mobile phone adoption curve to help predict the future network growth and adoption rate of Bitcoin.
But even though the model goes right with Bitcoin’s rise so far, it seems unrealistic for it to continue in this way.”
The analyst included the other two models in his forecast. Timmer added that based on the adoption of mobile phones, Bitcoin could explode in value and trade at $144,753 by 2025.
But if Bitcoin follows the internet adoption rate, Timmer’s model suggests that BTC has peaked and could trade at $47,702 in three years.
“Assuming the mobile phone curve is a more appropriate analogue, the curve shows that there will be a strongly growing network for Bitcoin in the coming years, but the more asymptotic internet curve makes it more likely that Bitcoin’s growth curve is more settled…
As an avid store of value in a world of ongoing financial pressure, I am optimistic about Bitcoin, but the above study reminds us that we should always reconsider our assumptions, especially when price action deviates from expectations.”
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Disclaimer: What is written here is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are high-risk investments. Every investment decision is under the individual’s own responsibility. Finally, KoinFinans and the author of this content cannot be held responsible for personal investment decisions.