Lesson learned from the Ukraine war: only credible deterrence protects

Almost overnight, Germany recently decided on the most far-reaching changes to its foreign and security policy in 30 years. Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a special fund of 100 billion euros for defense and wants to spend more than two percent of gross domestic product on the Bundeswehr every year. If implemented in this way, Berlin would not only fulfill a long-agreed NATO commitment, but even exceed it.

These changes have come with a speed and determination that has amazed even seasoned security professionals. The new course is due to the realization that our freedom is threatened concretely. The atrocities of the current war, the suffering and the fierce resistance of the people of Ukraine have created a great sense of urgency. Suddenly, the EU members reached a consensus that had often been sorely missed before. This could result in tectonic shifts.
It is hoped that a modern, integrated and efficiently managed European armed force will emerge in the coming years. That could give more weight to an equally integrated European foreign policy because it would effectively deter aggressors. It is encouraging that Europe is finally pulling together – but the new unity must endure beyond the current threat situation. That is why we must now initiate a long-term transformation of our security policy.

Only credible deterrence protects

In view of the Russian President’s implicit threat of even using nuclear weapons if necessary, only credible military deterrence ultimately protects. Bad as it sounds, we must not be blackmailed by his arsenal of awfulness. In times of peace, politicians sometimes face nasty attacks when pursuing strategies that impose short-term burdens on society, but whose benefits only become apparent in the long-term, or, because of their preventive nature, do not materialize at all – except in the guise of peace , which we have long taken for granted.

This also applies to defense policy. And now, after the initiated turning point? We must protect our politicians better and support their work more. How else are they supposed to muster the strength and courage for prevention policy? Such a policy is all the more urgent as the world appears to be in permanent crisis mode. The next conflicts are already emerging or are already running in the background.

Against the background of the Ukraine war, the federal government has decided on a paradigm shift. Despite the depressing current situation, it must also be a question of facing the urgent questions of the future: Can we flip the switch permanently to avert future wars in Europe through credible deterrence? How do we overcome short-term thinking in legislative periods when it comes to geopolitical developments? Are we finally succeeding in developing strategic foresight, for example in questions of raw material supply?

Good cooperation instead of endless debates

Incidentally, these questions also arise during election campaigns. The last federal election campaign was a total failure in terms of strategic foresight. Foreign trade issues and geopolitical developments played almost no role. After all, the reactions of the past few weeks give hope that Europe can change – and unite. It is up to all EU member states, but especially France and Germany, to press ahead with the necessary changes now and to involve as many partners as possible.

For a resilient EU foreign policy, we need good cooperation, but not endless debates and not necessarily unanimity in the European Council. In Germany, we must finally be ready to make comprehensive structural adjustments, for example in public procurement law and the procurement system of the Bundeswehr. Incidentally, despite Brexit, close cooperation between the EU countries and Great Britain is essential when it comes to developing modern security systems.

Furthermore, we must no longer look at our security industries through the national lens. Instead, we must step up joint projects and efforts to secure European sovereignty. The focus must be on the common result for Europe – the time of particular, national interest representation is over. This is the only way we can achieve sovereignty in key technologies that serve Europe’s security.

A jolt must go through the old continent

But not only higher defense budgets are needed for a jolt to go through the old continent. The large industrial partners of the states on both sides of the Rhine must also assume responsibility if we want to implement future projects such as the joint European combat aircraft system, which operates under the abbreviation FCAS or Future Combat Air System. The core companies must be willing to pool their expertise – out of conviction for a sovereign Europe.

We will not achieve the necessary technological leaps at FCAS if we threaten to fall out over seemingly childish national leadership debates. For Europe, with FCAS on the cusp of entering the development phase, the stakes are high – and not just militarily. Because the program also offers us the opportunity to decisively reduce our dependency on non-European providers when consolidating the cloud. I can say this much: Airbus, which is based on multinational, European cooperation like no other company, is prepared to throw everything into the balance.
Incidentally, against the background of current events, it is not without a certain irony that Airbus had to fight for inclusion in the Dax 40 last year just because we are developing European defense technology. Our Eurofighters, for example, are currently a cornerstone of the NATO operations in Romania, Bulgaria and Poland. Our A400M transport aircraft were used in the 2021 evacuation of Kabul. They also play an important role these days.

In future there must be no more wars in Europe

Only recently access to the capital market for companies in the defense industry in the EU was supposed to become even more difficult. The drafts for the new “social taxonomy” did not bode well in this regard. Some banks, also in Germany, had already announced that they no longer wanted to finance important companies in the defense industry.

In the meantime, this taxonomy debate has died down for the time being. Let’s see if it picks up speed again later. In any case, that would not serve the security of Europe. Because one thing is certain: democracy, human rights and freedom are not God-given, they unfortunately have to be increasingly defended. Precisely because of our German past, we have a duty to ensure that there will be no more wars in Europe in the future. However, this will only succeed if we demonstrate our determination to defend ourselves through credible deterrence.

The author: René Obermann is Chairman of the Board of Directors of Airbus and Co-Head Europe of private equity firm Warburg Pincus.

More: The billions for the Bundeswehr are just the beginning.