Washington The US President’s visit to Poland shortly before the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is intended to serve several purposes. In the foreground is the promise that NATO can rely on the leadership role of the United States. The White House emphasized that Joe Biden wanted to underline “the transatlantic unity and his iron support for our allies” in the capital Warsaw.
The US President traveled to the Ukrainian capital Kiev on Monday. It is the first visit to the country since Russia’s war of aggression began almost exactly a year ago. The visit was not announced for security reasons. John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, had previously denied a possible visit.
The trip to Eastern Europe is also intended as a signal of determination to Vladimir Putin: while Biden is giving a speech in front of the Royal Castle in Warsaw on Tuesday, Putin is planning a keynote speech to the Russian people on the same day. It is likely that Putin will use it to announce his next military offensive in Ukraine.
According to Daniel Fried, the former US ambassador to Poland, Biden could bring a new sense of belonging to the western military alliance. “Biden will emerge as a war president in Warsaw, on the border of a war country, he will symbolize the free world against tyranny. If he does well, this could be a defining moment for his legacy and for all of Europe,” he wrote in an op-ed for the Atlantic Council think tank.
Biden lands in Warsaw on Tuesday morning. At 5.30 p.m. he should then appear in front of the royal palace.
On Wednesday he will meet with the heads of state and government of the “Bucharest Nine”, the NATO countries in Eastern Europe. The group was founded in 2014 after the Russian annexation of Crimea.
The United States has so far refused delivery of fighter jets
Biden’s trip is a diplomatic tightrope act: shortly after the start of the war, he traveled to the Polish-Ukrainian border. At that time he had called for a regime change in Russia in a speech: Putin “cannot remain in power,” said the president. The White House then spoke of a misunderstanding, which showed that Washington absolutely wanted to avoid a direct conflict with Moscow.
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Poland as a target was strategically chosen because the country is a key NATO partner for the United States. It houses 10,000 American soldiers and serves as a hub for Western arms transfers to Ukraine. Kirby explained that the countries of Eastern Europe are “literally on the front lines of our collective defence”.
In the past few days, the US government has gone on a diplomatic offensive: Vice President Kamala Harris and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to the Munich Security Conference, top strategists from the White House and politicians from the US Congress were well represented.
NATO partner
10,000
US soldiers
are stationed in Poland.
Harris accused Russia of “systematic attacks on the civilian population” in Ukraine and “cruel acts of murder, torture, rape and deportation.” Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to make a working visit to Washington in early March.
The journey takes place at a sensitive time. The US and Europe are bracing for a long, harsh winter for Ukraine. “Until negotiations are remotely realistic, there is no scenario for a quick end to the war,” said Peter Rough, director of the Europe Center at the conservative think tank Hudson Institute. “The goal of the US administration is to put Ukraine in a strong negotiating position, whenever these talks may come and under whatever circumstances.”
However, the US government rejects the calls from Kiev for fighter jets, only after long hesitation did the US approve tanks. According to the Washington Post, the US government has told Kiev that there is no guarantee of future military aid. The US has approved $26.7 billion for Ukraine’s defense needs, including combat vehicles, trucks, mine-resistant SUVs and missile defense systems. Biden will not announce a new tranche in Poland, Kirby said.
Weapon wear and tear in Ukraine becomes a problem
Apparently, Biden is reacting to domestic political pressure: parts of the Republicans, who have dominated the House of Representatives in the US Congress since January, want to block aid to Ukraine. In the dispute over raising the debt limit, the rapidly rising US defense budget is at issue.
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Other Republicans and some Democrats, on the other hand, are calling for US fighter jets to give Ukraine a chance to defeat Russia. Without the appropriate military equipment, Ukraine is “doomed to wage a perpetual war because it cannot lose and cannot win,” says expert Rough.
Shortly before Biden’s trip to Poland, MPs from both parties called on the president to authorize the use of F-16 fighters. “The F-16s are an absolute must,” Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said at the Munich Security Conference. For now, Biden shows commitment to Ukraine, but at the same time draws boundaries. The United States, for example, does not want to send longer-range missiles that can penetrate deep into Russia into the country at war.
The fear of a military conflict between the USA and Russia is too great. “That would blow up NATO,” Biden said when he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in December.
Biden will emerge as a war president in Warsaw, on the border of a country at war, he will symbolize the free world against tyranny. Daniel Fried, former US Ambassador to Poland
Biden, who could soon be running for re-election, also has to take public sentiment into account. According to a survey by the AP news agency, 60 percent of US citizens supported American military aid at the beginning of the war; the figure is now 48 percent.
At the same time, the debate in NATO is smoldering about how long the West can keep up with Ukraine’s depletion of arms. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently warned that Ukraine’s “current ammunition spending rate is many times higher than our current production rate” and that the defense industry was “under pressure”.
American defense contractors bear a large part of the burden. According to CNN, the Pentagon recently pumped $3 billion into foreign ammunition purchases and domestic production increases. The production of artillery shells alone has increased from 15,000 to 70,000 per month. Much of it is made in Scranton, Pennsylvania – the birthplace of President Biden.
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