The right-wing populist is currently behind in the polls.
(Photo: AP)
Rio de Janeiro There was great political fanfare organized by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Sunday. In the smaller arena next to the Maracanã Stadium in Rio de Janeiro, pop stars sang the national anthem. Evangelical pastors prayed together with around ten thousand followers. In the opening speech, Bolsonaro’s wife warned of the communist danger in Brazil if her husband were not re-elected.
At the event, which was spread across all social media, the right-wing populist was chosen as the Liberal Party’s candidate for the presidential elections next October. It is the ninth party that Bolsonaro is running for in his political career.
At the event, it appeared that Bolsonaro was already preparing for defeat – and for ways of remaining in power. He called on his supporters to take to the streets “one last time” on September 7th – the 200th anniversary of Brazil’s independence.
Last September, the Brazilian President incited his supporters to storm the Supreme Court – similar to the storming of the US Capitol in early 2021 after the presidential election by supporters of the defeated President Donald Trump. In contrast to the USA, however, this did not take place in Brazil.
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In addition, the incumbent president seems to want to doubt a victory for his left-wing challenger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in advance. Only a week ago, in front of foreign ambassadors, Bolsonaro again criticized the electronic ballot box system as unreliable and argued with insinuations, half-truths and obviously incorrect “facts”. He presented no evidence.
Government courts social package for votes
In the most recent polls, Lula leads with 47 percent far ahead of Bolsonaro with 28 percent. Bolsonaro fares particularly poorly among women and youth, as well as the socially disadvantaged residents of Brazil’s northeast, where about a fifth of voters live.
Colorful career
8th
parties
Jair Bolsonaro has already run through a candidacy in his political career. The Liberal Party, for which he is now running, is the ninth.
In order to win votes in this group, the government has already launched a large social package. Although this goes beyond the legal spending framework for the state budget, it was legitimized with an alleged “national emergency”.
Among other things, 30 to 40 million people with low incomes now receive a monthly subsidy of the equivalent of 100 euros. When the Bolsonaro government distributed social assistance similarly widely at the beginning of the pandemic, Bolsonaro’s popularity among the poorer population increased rapidly.
The former Brazilian president was not allowed to run in the last election.
(Photo: Reuters)
However, Bolsonaro’s opponent Lula also led in the polls in the most recent elections four years ago. However, the two-time ex-president was barred from voting in the elections during his tenure from 2003 to 2010 following a ruling by the Supreme Court due to corruption cases. In the meantime, however, the verdict has been declared invalid for formal reasons and Lula has been politically rehabilitated
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It is still quite possible that Lula’s lead will shrink in the coming weeks. So far, the ex-president has always been confident of winning in the first round of voting. That no longer seems realistic.
The former labor leader is struggling to form alliances in key states. The Communist Party and the Greens of Brazil as well as his own workers’ party PT are behind him. But in order to maintain or extend his lead, he needs more allied parties from the political center. However, because of Bolsonaro’s generous spending policy, they are reluctant to clearly back Lula.
Bolsonaro is running again in the presidential election
It is not yet clear who will contest the election campaign alongside Bolsonaro and Lula. The candidates only have to register their official candidacy on August 15th.
Meanwhile, the election campaign is becoming more aggressive: a bomb exploded at an event held by Lula in Rio. Again and again, supporters of the two opponents violently clash during demonstrations.
Bolsonaro finds support not only on the streets, but also among the military. They occupy a number of key positions in the government. Again and again they investigate the electronic voting system, although their opinion or expertise is not required by the constitution.
Meanwhile, many Brazilians fear that the military could fill a possible political vacuum after a disputed election – in order to secure power for Bolsonaro and himself.
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