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Friday, December 13, 2024

How very early retirement still works now

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Good morning dear readers,

the Rome correspondent of the Handelsblatt is a man of many talents. Christian Wermke traces Italian ministers, bankers and industrialists in his main job. He also organizes the sale of the Handelsblatt Friday cover as an NFT. He also sells his own photographs of Rome as digital originals, and he even promises every buyer an aperitivo with il Corrispondente in person.

On top of that, and that’s the point here, Wermke is well networked in the so-called FIRE movement thanks to numerous research. The abbreviation stands for “Financial Independence, Retire Early”. It’s about contemporaries who, despite good salaries, live extremely modestly in order to turn their backs on working life as early as possible thanks to the savings.

A dream that millions of employees are likely to dream. But few have the income and discipline to make it a reality. For today’s weekend title, Wermke researched how inflation, stock market weakness and interest rate increases affect the sophisticated savings and withdrawal plans of FIRE supporters. Not good, one might think – after all, almost everyone in the scene invests in stocks or builds up their wealth with condominiums bought on credit.

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Early retirement: FIRE stands for “Financial Independence, Retire Early”.

But Wermke encountered surprising composure: Price setbacks are seen here as an opportunity to buy more cheaply, and many FIRE fans have said goodbye to conventional consumption to such an extent that inflation hardly affects them anymore.

Investment reporter Markus Hinterberger used three fictitious examples to calculate how realistic an early career exit still is despite increased inflation. His conclusion is different:

  • Retirement at 45 – almost impossible
  • Retirement at 50 – very ambitious
  • Retirement at 55 – yes, that can work

For long-term investment, most FIRE supporters rely on index funds that track the MSCI World global stock index. Anyone who invests in this fund has not had an easy year financially. This is shown in an overview that is one of my favorite sections in the Handelsblatt every year shortly before New Year’s Eve: What has become of 100,000 euros over the course of the year, depending on the asset class? In the case of the MSCI World, it was EUR 85,360.

When you look at the graphic, do you also feel that contented shudder that you never jumped on the bitcoin bandwagon yourself? Then only a good third of the money would be left. At the same time, the nagging question: could one have somehow foreseen that Turkish stocks would almost double in value in 2022?

graphic

The German media rarely read or hear anything about domestic politics in Ukraine. The current dispute over a law that is intended to drastically increase the penalties for desertion by Ukrainian soldiers is all the more illuminating. The tightening stipulates that fighters who disobey orders or leave their positions or units without permission must go to prison for between three and nine years – previously milder sentences were provided, which were also often suspended on probation.

Desertion under enemy fire is now punishable by up to twelve years’ imprisonment. Commanders can also expect up to twelve years in prison if they insult or threaten their subordinates. Chief of Staff Valery Zalushni urged the President to sign the law quickly, because: “An army is based on discipline.”

35,000 people in Ukraine have now signed a petition calling on President Volodymyr Zelensky to veto the law. Sergeant and blogger Yuri Hudimenko, who is considered a war hero, is also one of the critics: The armed forces of Ukraine went “through hell”. You have to talk to these people instead of punishing them and demotivating them with the law.

“Football lost the greatest in its history today – and I lost a unique friend.”

This is how Franz Beckenbauer reacted to Pelé’s death. The Brazilian world champion of 1958, 1962 and 1970, whose full name was Edson Arantes do Nascimento, died on Thursday at the age of 82. He was seriously ill with cancer. The day before Christmas Eve, his daughter Kely Cristina Nascimento published a photo with her father in bed, both holding each other’s arms. “We carry on here, in struggle and in faith. One more night together,” she wrote. Then on Thursday: “Everything we are, we owe to you. We love you infinitely, rest in peace.”

British fashion designer Vivienne Westwood, who made punk catwalk-ready with her creations, also died yesterday at the age of 81. She once ran a boutique on London’s King’s Road with Malcolm McLaren, manager of the band Sex Pistols. Westwood then built a global fashion brand that now has its own stores in Europe, America and Asia.

The one constant in this year of upheaval was Deutsche Bahn. With the reliability that we actually wish for from it, it brought us new adventures on the track in 2022.

To anyone who thinks they are on the verge of a nervous breakdown even if they are just a few minutes late and the wagons are reversed between Hamm and Bielefeld, I recommend a book that gave me a lot of joy over the Christmas period: “Monsieur Orient-Express” by Gerhard Rekel. A biography of the Belgian railway pioneer Georges Nagelmackers, who in the decades before World War I covered Europe with a network of luxury trains – including the eponymous Orient Express from Paris to Istanbul.

Such an Orient Express was Nagelmacker’s masterpiece in 1883. To this day, the name of the train stands for elegant travel on rails.

(Photo: Orient Express)

Rekel describes its maiden voyage in 1883 as a series of calamities: a failed dining car, a detour lasting hours, involuntary foot marches by the passengers on muddy Carpathian paths. With good reason, the travelers had been instructed to carry their revolvers.

At least that’s what Deutsche Bahn has never asked me to do.

I wish you a peaceful end to the year without reversed order of drinks or food failures. On January 2nd, my colleague Teresa Stiens welcomes you once again. I’ll be back for you on January 9th.
Kind regards, and thank you for your loyalty!

Best regards

you

Christian Rickens

Editor-in-Chief Handelsblatt

Morning Briefing: Alexa

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