Hiroshima Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has a mission. At the meeting of the G7 countries and South Korea in Hiroshima, he wants to persuade the heads of state and government to commit to nuclear disarmament – in the city where 80,000 people were killed by the explosion or the subsequent firestorm as a result of an American nuclear attack in 1945.
It remains to be seen whether his appeal at the May 19-21 summit will be successful. Globally, the signs are against disarmament.
Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war. In February he announced that he would suspend the last major disarmament treaty with the United States.
In East Asia, Russia is conducting military maneuvers with China that are making Japan and South Korea increasingly nervous. Iran could become a nuclear power after the US, Russia, China, France, Britain, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea. Nuclear armament is also openly discussed by US ally South Korea.
More and more South Koreans are worried that the United States, the protecting power, would not defend the country with nuclear weapons, because after China and Russia, North Korea is now also arming itself and directly threatening North America with nuclear weapons.
Neighboring countries feel threatened by Pyongyang’s nuclear program.
(Photo: dpa)
Fei Su, researcher at the Stockholm Institute for Peace Research (Sipri), fears a domino effect: “If South Korea were to adopt nuclear weapons, this could trigger another debate in Japan about a reinterpretation of Japanese defense policy and the three non-nuclear principles.”
Negotiations on nuclear disarmament are becoming difficult
This is the government’s non-legally binding promise not to manufacture, possess or deploy nuclear weapons. If Japan goes against Kishida’s efforts by adopting nuclear weapons, it could increase tensions with China, Su warns.
Also, other countries could take Japan as an example. In the right wing of Kishida’s Liberal Democratic Party in particular, nuclear armament is being considered.
Tatsujiro Suzuki, deputy chief of the Nagasaki University’s Nuclear Disarmament Research Center, is also concerned. With the fear of war, armament budgets have also grown. In addition, a growing number of nuclear powers would make disarmament negotiations significantly more difficult than in the Cold War, says Suzuki.
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At that time, it was mainly the USA and the Soviet Union that were negotiating to reduce the number of nuclear weapons. “This is no longer enough today,” warns Suzuki.
The Russian government has recently threatened to use nuclear weapons.
(Photo: dpa)
The negotiations would have to be conducted at least trilaterally, since China is arming itself to become an equal opponent. There would also be new types of nuclear weapons, delivery systems with less warning time such as hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence, drones and cyber warfare. So it’s no longer just about negotiating the number of nuclear weapons. “Therefore, much more diplomatic skill is required than before.”
Despite the challenges, Suzuki has hope for the Hiroshima meeting. A Japanese push against the first use of nuclear weapons alone would send an important message to Russia, he believes.
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But he hopes that the participants will go beyond that. The three nuclear powers among the G7 countries – the US, France and Britain – should commit to opening talks with Russia, China and North Korea. “That would be an important milestone.”
Hope for a declaration against the use of nuclear weapons
John Tierney, head of the American Center for Arms Control & Non-Proliferation, also welcomes the Japanese Prime Minister’s plan. “The meeting is significant and compels other nations to address this issue,” he says.
The former US politician hopes not only for a declaration against the use of nuclear weapons, but also for a diplomatic offensive by the participants to put pressure on other nuclear powers. There is enough deterrence, says Tierney. “We have forgotten the art of diplomacy.”
After all, there are already signs that nuclear weapons will not inevitably spread further. The International Non-Proliferation Treaty still prevents many countries from investing in nuclear weapons.
Like other countries, South Korea is under the nuclear protective umbrella of the United States.
(Photo: IMAGO/ZUMA Wire)
In addition, according to Sipri researcher Su, the recently agreed establishment of a nuclear consultation group between Seoul and Washington could strengthen South Korea’s confidence in the US nuclear protective shield and thus stop ambitions for its own nuclear weapons.
Many countries have not signed the nuclear weapons treaty
In Hiroshima, G7 hosts Japan could also strengthen the nuclear weapons ban treaty, which only came into force in 2021. Adopted by the United Nations in 2017, the treaty prohibits the development, production, testing, acquisition, stockpiling, transport, deployment, threat and use of nuclear weapons. So far, neither the nuclear powers nor NATO countries have signed the treaty.
Japan has also not signed so far. “Some attribute this to pressure from the United States, others see it as a sign of loyalty,” says disarmament expert Suzuki.
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Like Germany, Japan is also under the nuclear umbrella of the United States. “But that’s not a convincing reason why Japan can’t attend the meetings as an observer,” Suzuki said. Germany did this last year at the first meeting. He hopes Kishida will take this as an example.
Disarmament lobbyist Tierney gives another reason for cautious optimism. The US and China would be holding closer dialogue than they were six months ago for fear of an escalation.
He therefore appeals to civil society around the world: “I would like to call on all people in every country to make their voices heard,” says Tierney. So far there has only been one success in nuclear disarmament – after the Cold War, “when the public raised its voice and became active”.
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