Beijing Just last week, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell suggested that China could play a mediating role in the Ukraine war. Experts were skeptical – and this skepticism is now being fueled.
During his annual press conference on the sidelines of the People’s Congress, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi left no doubt: China and Russia are close partners and will continue to stick together in the future. The “common commitment to everlasting friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation” is extremely relevant and important. Wang avoided calling Russia an aggressor in the Ukraine conflict.
Noah Barkin, analyst for Sino-European relations at the Rhodium Group, is not very optimistic. “China has repeatedly called for a negotiated solution to this conflict, but there is no sign that it is willing to put in the hard work required for such a solution.”
“At best, one might expect Beijing to put pressure on Russia to cease hostilities if it finds that this war harms its own interests.” But it is a stretch to think that it is playing the role of mediator between Moscow and Kyiv could play. “Putin is not looking for a mediator,” Barkin said. Moreover, China’s rhetorical support for Russia would have undermined its position as an honest broker.
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New motivation for Beijing
“The relationship of trust between Xi and Putin speaks for a mediator role,” explains Maximilian Mayer, professor at the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies (CASSIS) at the Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn. “However, in Beijing they know very well that the close connection to Russia would have to be visibly scaled back in order to be credible at all.”
Sebastian Heilmann, China professor at the University of Trier and founding director of the Berlin China think tank Merics, believes that the course of the war so far and the reaction of the West have given Beijing new motivation to offer to mediate in the Ukraine war.
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Russia is in danger of losing control over the course of the war, and expansion to the EU and NATO can no longer be ruled out, according to China expert Heilmann. “All of these new developments run counter to China’s geostrategic interests.”
Heilmann advocates that Europe should support an active Chinese role in the Ukraine conflict. “Beijing should be very happy to show that it takes responsibility for containing the war and for international stability,” said Heilmann.
“The drastic bottlenecks and price explosions in global energy and food supplies must worry China deeply, as must the prospect of an abrupt collapse in global economic cooperation overall,” says Heilmann.
All journalists’ questions had to be submitted in advance of the event.
(Photo: Getty Images)
However, Foreign Minister Wang Yi did not address such scenarios during the press conference. His main concern was to underline the close partnership with Russia. “No matter how uncertain and challenging the international situation, China and Russia will maintain their strategic focus and steadily advance our comprehensive strategic partnership and coordination,” Wang said.
Beijing regularly defends Russia’s actions and speaks of legitimate security interests. It condemned the sanctions against Moscow and abstained from the UN resolution.
Wang Yi addressed sharp words to Washington on Monday. “The US pretends to promote regional cooperation, but in reality it is fueling geopolitical rivalries,” the Chinese foreign minister said.
China accuses Washington of rearmament in Asia
With the US Indo-Pacific strategy, an “Indo-Pacific version of NATO” should be created. Under the pretext of wanting to cultivate multilateralism, the US only created “exclusive clubs,” criticized Wang.
A press conference by the Chinese Foreign Ministry cannot be compared to German press conferences. The circle of participants is handpicked, numerous foreign correspondents are not admitted without giving reasons or are not even invited. Questions that are asked must be submitted beforehand.
A journalist wanted to know whether the clear commitment to Russia could affect relations with the EU. Wang Yi replied that China-Europe relations and China-Russia relations are “entirely different issues.”
China often portrays its relationship with Europe as particularly good, especially compared to that with the USA. However, the European Union is regularly portrayed in the state media as a willless appendage of Washington. “We hope,” Wang Yi said on Monday, “that Europe will develop a more independent and objective perception of China.”
Chinese Foreign Minister reiterated that China stands ready to continue playing a “constructive role” to facilitate dialogue for peace. If necessary, it will also work with international organizations to carry out the necessary mediation, Wang Yi said.
In his speech at the ongoing People’s Congress in Beijing on Saturday, China’s Prime Minister Li Keqiang prepared the People’s Republic for a difficult year. The Chinese government is planning economic growth of 5.5 percent for 2022 – the lowest growth target in three decades. The Chinese customs authority announced on Monday that foreign trade had already cooled off at the beginning of the year.
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