Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has led to an amazing strengthening of the transatlantic alliance. The US has shown itself to be the determined leader of the West and a “European power”.
But how sustainable is this solidarity? One thing is certain: With Russia’s destruction of the previous European order, the partnership with the USA will become even more important for us – also for the German economy.
In doing so, we must look at the strategic priorities of the USA in the struggle between the great powers for a new world order without any illusions.
The United States saw the Russian war of aggression coming. They drove the sanctions and provided massive financial and military support to Ukraine.
There will be no “normalization” with Russia under President Biden as long as Putin is in power. Europe will have to adjust to a tough US containment strategy – probably for many years.
It will include military build-up and consistent economic and political decoupling from Russia. The sanctions will remain.
But it is unlikely that the USA will guarantee Europe’s security permanently – as in the Cold War – by deploying massive personnel of its own. Most of the defense against Russia’s neo-imperial aspirations in Europe will have to be shouldered by Europeans themselves.
The rival and adversary China has and remains the absolute strategic priority of the USA. That is political consensus in Washington — a rare consensus.
The US has already forged new security alliances against China’s claim to regional dominance: the four-power alliance (“quad”) of the US, India, Japan and Australia and the AUKUS pact (Australia, United Kingdom, USA).
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President Biden’s tone on Taiwan issue is getting sharper. Economically, the US screw of sanctions and export bans is steadily tightened. Beijing’s retaliatory measures often follow quickly, and the spiral of mutual coercive measures turns.
The use of the sharpest sword – US secondary sanctions against Beijing if the western Russia sanctions are undermined – is a threat in the room. The risks for the European economy are obvious. For many German companies, diversification in the Asian region is advisable.
The elephant China is always in the room when the EU and the USA meet. This is also the case with the “Trade and Technology Council” (TTC) created in 2021.
There will be no trade agreement between the US and Europe
The aim is not a trade agreement, but rather the coordination of issues relating to technology standards, environmental norms, semiconductors, dual-use export controls or investment reviews. This vote is useful but has limited ambition.
From the US perspective, TTC primarily serves to contain China. However, this should not prevent Europe from making progress in harmonizing rules and standards in its own interest.
A new attempt at a real free trade agreement would be desirable from a geostrategic point of view, but is an illusion for the foreseeable future. There is a lack of political will on both sides.
The US is still caught in a protectionist loop – free trade is unpopular in both political camps. Biden’s “Buy American” slogan speaks volumes.
In Germany, too, claims of all kinds on trade agreements are being pushed up more and more. Nevertheless: Germany and the EU should do everything possible to make progress on mutual market access, including with the USA.
Competition of the systems: trade only with democracies?
When Biden took office, he called for an alliance of democracies against authoritarian states. Russia’s war has further accelerated this dynamic. Suddenly the world seems to be falling into two blocs: the West and its Asian allies versus Russia/China.
But appearances are deceptive. For one thing, it is by no means certain that China will chain itself to Russia for better or for worse. On the other hand, many countries in the “Global South” are reluctant to adopt a bipolar world order – including heavyweights such as India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa and the Gulf States.
Nevertheless, the formation of camps is also becoming an eminent economic factor: trade and the basic values of democracies are increasingly being considered together.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen recently defined the goal of US trade policy as “free, but secure trade” – meaning value-based trade. Strong currents in European countries are going in the same direction.
Risks of US domestic politics
This goal can hardly be contradicted. But can export-oriented European industry afford to only trade with like-minded people?
The goal must be a free, fundamentally open trading system based on defined rules, which of course also includes basic principles of state behavior.
How reliable is the US as a transatlantic partner? The country is politically divided, and polarizing “culture wars” are poisoning public discourse. That weakens US leadership.
The “midterm elections” in November will help decide the weal and woe of the Biden administration. Polls and the historic swing of the pendulum in favor of the opposition party suggest the Democrats are losing their majority in Congress.
Then, legislatively, almost nothing will work until the next presidential election. And 2024? Nobody can make serious predictions today. But a return by Trump or a Republican of his ilk is a real possibility.
Then what Europe fears most could come true: the withdrawal of the USA as a “European power”. In this case, the EU must take precautions – now!
These four points make the transatlantic relationship crisis-proof
Russia’s war is a wake-up call for Europe – and especially for Germany – to help shape the new order and make the existential transatlantic alliance crisis-proof. Four points are important:
- Now European security policy must be given a boost and the European NATO pillar strengthened
- The resolution to turn the EU into a “geopolitical force” must take shape: for example, through a more powerful European foreign policy and through defense mechanisms against foreign economic coercive measures
- All possibilities of EU-US cooperation in trade and technology must be exhausted – also within the WTO. The EU should continue to tie the network of bilateral and plurilateral free trade agreements – for its own benefit and as a contribution to the rules-based economic order
- Finally, the current commonalities in environmental and climate policies should be solidified to make them more resilient to possible setbacks after the US presidential election.
The current major crisis in Europe is the right moment for forward-looking action – waiting must not be an alternative.
The author: Peter Wittig was ambassador to the USA and Great Britain. Today he teaches as an honorary professor at Georgetown University in Washington, DC
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