Berlin, NY The public is currently learning every day how the US secret services are speculating about attack scenarios and a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Fears of an attack are growing in Ukraine, although the country’s leadership warns against panicking. Scenarios for a wave of refugees from Ukraine in the event of an invasion by Russian troops are already being discussed in the EU and the USA. And the federal government is now trying to weaken the growing pressure from its partners.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) will meet US President Joe Biden in the White House for the first time this Monday. At the same time, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is traveling to Kiev to discuss German support with her counterpart Dmitro Kuleba and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Before the chancellor’s arrival, anger at Berlin had grown in Washington: “Germany is considered an unreliable partner and the weakest link in NATO when it comes to how to deal with Putin,” says Jackson Janes, Senior Fellow of the German Marshall Fund in Washington, the location. Berlin’s refusal to deliver helmets and a field hospital to Kiev instead of defensive weapons only increased the criticism.
Republican Senator James Risch calls for a “rethinking of the German position”. This includes the clear announcement that Nord Stream 2 should not be put into operation if Russia attacks Ukraine: “When Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, we heard similar assurances, but a few months later Germany pushed Nord Stream 2 again. “It shouldn’t be allowed to happen again.
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Criticism of Germany in the United States has increased so much that the German embassy in Washington has been distributing leaflets to members of parliament and senators for a few days with the title “German Support for Ukraine”. Based on 14 points, it lists how Germany has been helping Ukraine for years.
Agreement between the federal government and the USA is in danger
The discussion about the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline will play a central role on the Scholz trip. The chancellor brought the misery on himself. He repeatedly said that the pipeline should be treated as a “private sector” project, a formulation that caused considerable irritation in Washington.
>> Read here: Olaf Scholz meets Joe Biden – but the trip is more than just an inaugural visit
Last summer, Germany and the US agreed on a painstakingly negotiated statement on Nord Stream 2, in which Germany committed “that Russia will not use any pipeline, including Nord Stream 2, to achieve aggressive political goals.” Even if the text remained vague in parts, the Americans interpret the agreement as an implicit promise that the natural gas pipeline, which has now been completed, will not go into operation in the event of Russian aggression against Ukraine.
The federal government is said to have accepted this interpretation: in coalition circles it can be heard that there was an informal commitment that supplements the declaration. According to this, ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) assured Biden that Nord Stream 2 would not go online if Russia invaded Ukraine. It is said that Merkel also did this on behalf of Scholz.
When Scholz, as soon as he was in office, declared the pipeline a non-political matter, the Americans feared that the new chancellor wanted to question the painstakingly negotiated compromise.
In the summer of 2021, the German and US governments agreed on a statement on Nord Stream 2.
(Photo: imago images/UPI Photo)
Meanwhile, Finland’s Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto is calling for more self-confidence in dealing with Russia: “Russia is forced to cooperate differently with the West,” Haavisto told the Handelsblatt. Because: “Russia needs Europe and Western technologies if it wants to get out of the raw materials industry and achieve a higher level of production.” Moscow knows “that we may be dependent on oil and gas for another ten years, but then we will get out of it with renewable and green technologies solve”.
In fact, important Russian corporations are already reacting: Even before the export bans for high-tech products to Russia threatened by the USA take effect in the event of an invasion, the largest bank in Eastern Europe, the state-dominated Russian Sberbank, is preparing to work without Western computers and software.
According to the Moscow business newspaper Kommersant, attempts have already been made to do without IT products from Microsoft, SAP, Nvidia and VMware. The massive purchase of Russian hardware is being prepared. In a letter to the Russian government, Gazprom boss Alexej Miller had even complained about the high costs of switching to Russian hardware and software for the world’s largest gas producer.
Lambrecht wants more Bundeswehr troops in Lithuania
As a sign of a possible imminent invasion, US intelligence services have now made it clear that Russia wants to bring forward its exercise in strategic nuclear forces.
This usually takes place in the fall, but has now been brought forward to mid-February to March, according to US military sources. The maneuver could serve as a warning to the West not to intervene in the event of a military conflict in Ukraine.
Biden has repeatedly stated that he will not send US troops to fight in Ukraine. However, he has sent additional units to Poland and Romania to show Moscow America’s determination.
Federal Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) also announced that the Bundeswehr contingent in Lithuania would be strengthened. In addition, Eurofighters would be deployed to Romania for air surveillance. “Everyone in NATO can rely on us,” she emphasized. However, she again ruled out arms deliveries to Ukraine.
More: Russia has the upper hand in the fight for gas – for now