Berlin Ivan Krastev is in touch from Sofia. The home of the renowned Eastern Europe expert has surprised him these days. Like other neighboring countries, Bulgaria was quick to open its borders to Ukrainian refugees.
The turning point in Germany surprised Krastev the most. This is “one of the most momentous developments in Europe in the last two decades”.
The political scientist also sees economic problems in Germany if Moscow and Beijing move closer together. The Bulgarian also warns of an escalation of the current situation, which could result not only from Putin’s threat of nuclear weapons, but also from cyber attacks.
For the head of the Kremlin, it is not so much his political opponents who are now taking to the streets that are dangerous. Rather, he must fear ordinary people, who might see him as someone who no longer cares about their everyday worries.
Mr. Krastev, Germany underwent a radical change of course in its foreign and security policy over the weekend. How do you rate this turning point?
Someone tweeted yesterday that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine ended Swedish neutrality and German pacifism in one day. And he’s right. The German government’s decision to drastically change its military and energy policies is one of the most momentous developments in Europe in the last two decades.
What triggered the change of course?
It is Berlin’s realization that the world as we know it has ended. Germany is ready to take an active part in shaping the next international order. And this was possible because Putin’s aggression forced the German public to face the new reality. After this decision, a new and different Germany emerged. The Federal Republic will change the most because it is the country that felt most at home in the post-Cold War order.
Can Europe build a new security architecture against Russia?
For the Russians, the Cold War isn’t that bad, it’s the world they already know. And don’t forget: the Cold War is also a security order. However, the new Cold War is much more dangerous than its predecessor because today we are much more closely connected. The task will be to manage the Cold War in such a way that it doesn’t spiral out of control and become a hot war. We must learn to live with discord. And that in a world in which not only nuclear weapons make the difference, but also cyber attacks. Cyber weapons are cheap, easy to deny and difficult to control.
Can Europe continue to rely on the US for this?
Berlin’s shift in defense spending, I believe, was prompted not only by Putin’s aggression but also by Trump’s response to it. Many in the German government will have wondered what this crisis would look like if the President of the United States was Donald Trump or one of his soul mates.
What problems does Germany face?
If Russia and China now come together, it will have enormous repercussions for Germany. Economic relations with China are of much greater importance for the German economy than trade with Russia. This is a huge problem for Germany.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz during his government statement in the Bundestag.
(Photo: AP)
What are the long-term consequences of the German turning point?
I have a feeling that future historians of Europe will mark the last few days as a turning point for Europe. They will point to the electrifying effect that the Ukrainians’ fierce resistance had on European public opinion. And they will emphasize the fact that overnight, the anti-immigrant East Europeans opened their borders and welcomed refugees from this war.
How is the mood in your home country Bulgaria after the war of aggression against Ukraine?
The most important is the government’s decision to open the borders to refugees from Ukraine. Politically, the Bulgarian parliament has condemned Russia’s attack with a large majority and supports the sanctions imposed by the West. Many Bulgarians cannot understand why one Slavic country attacks another.
What does the war mean for the Eastern European states that have oriented themselves towards Europe and have even become members of NATO?
Eastern Europe is not as homogeneous as many in the West think. For the Baltic States and for Poland, the Russian attack is an existential threat. This gives the EU an opportunity, in particular, to press for Poland to give in in its dispute with Brussels. It’s more difficult for Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has a close personal relationship with Putin. On the other hand, Hungarians still remember the Russian invasion in 1956. There is also a Hungarian minority in Ukraine.
What is the Russian President trying to achieve with the war?
His historical essay from July 2021 is crucial to understand his motivation. Everyone tries to read Putin’s mind, but his feelings are much more important. It is obvious that he wants to change the government in Kyiv. He also believes that a large part of Ukraine is historically part of Russia. So for him it’s also about a kind of reunification.
Vladimir Putin during his meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu Valery Gerasimov, Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
(Photo: dpa)
What has the war achieved so far?
Putin united the West because he crossed a red line by invading Europe. It forces every European country to reposition itself. A lot will depend on how the war goes on.
What do you think?
Russia is militarily superior, but the Ukrainians are defending themselves. And Putin cannot afford many casualties, either on the Russian side or on the Ukrainian side. The Russian Orthodox Church’s call for peace is very important. Many Slavs see the war in Ukraine as a civil war. As with the annexation of Crimea in 2014, many Russians are irritated. This is not Russia’s war, this is Putin’s war.
You mean his personal war?
Yes, this war does not follow a cool calculation of Realpolitik. It reflects the mindset of a generation of intelligence officers who watched the collapse of the Soviet Union and feel guilty about it to this day. A great deal of resentment arose from this. In addition, just as we feel helpless today in the face of Russian missiles being fired at Kyiv, so did the Russian leadership feel when NATO bombs fell on Belgrade during the 1999 Kosovo war.
Is the bitterness understandable?
The international order after the fall of the Berlin Wall was not negotiated by Russia, but by the then Soviet Union. Gorbachev wanted to hold together the Soviet empire, which was suffering from nationalist tensions, and was guided by the idea of Europe with its nation states connected in the EU. Most Russians, on the other hand, only saw that with the collapse of the Soviet Union they had lost their previous country and 25 million Russians then lived outside the borders.
Why is Putin embarking on this revenge campaign now?
One reason is that he has reached old age at 69. He also has no confidence in his potential successors. So Putin is trying to fix history while he’s still in power. This circumstance now drives him to hurry. Finally, one cannot underestimate the impact of the pandemic that has isolated him more and more. So he was alone with his grudges, and he’s a lot more emotional than many realize.
Did Putin not only underestimate the West, but also the anti-war protests at home?
For him, it’s not just about the Russians who live in Russia today. He thinks of historical Russia and in a way has stopped being a politician. For Putin, it is not his political opponents who are now taking to the streets that are dangerous. He must fear the common people, who might see him as someone who is no longer of this world and no longer cares about their everyday worries. The majority of Russians are suspicious of NATO but do not share Putin’s intense antipathy.
Ukrainian soldier on a street in Kyiv.
(Photo: AP)
How loyal is his closest circle of leaders?
The public session of the National Security Council has revealed the cracks. Some members were no longer on Putin’s side, they weren’t even following his script. His feelings are only shared by a few confidants from his generation.
Mr. Krastev, thank you very much for the interview.
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