HSBC strategists predict that the dollar will rise moderately against the TL by the end of 2024 and will close the year at 33 lira.
HSBC strategists Murat Toprak and Charotte Ongpublished a note for 2024. In this note published by the bank’s analysts, year-end Dollar/TL parity forecasts were included. According to strategists, this year the dollar will rise slowly and moderately by the end of the year. for 33 TL will reach.
Toprak and Ong, in the note “Strategy to control lira decline is working, monetary policy While supporting FX carry limits dollarization and helps macroeconomic balancing.” he said. Strategists also pointed out that carry dynamics turned in favor of TL as a result of large-scale interest increases starting from mid-2023.
“The dynamics have clearly turned more positive for the lira.”
Strategists in the report “Paid on lira deposits interest rates rose strongly. In real terms, the return on these deposits is still negative, but the dynamics have turned clearly more positive for the lira. The attractiveness of lira deposits may increase further in 2024 with disinflation in the second half of the year. The real interest rate trend will be the focus for the lira. As credit growth slows down, domestic demand will most likely be weaker and the current account deficit will decrease. This will make the lira less fragile.” he shared his evaluations.
HSBC’s 2023 year-end dollar/TL forecast was correct
Last August, the UK-based bank increased its dollar exchange rate expectation for the end of 2023 and stated that Dollar/TL at the end of the year at 29 TL He stated that it would happen. The bank’s expected exchange rate for the end of 2024 was 32 TL.
to 2023 The dollar, which said hello at the level of 18.8115 TL, With an increase of 58.34% It closed at 29.7876 TL. 2022 The dollar exchange rate, which started the year at 13.8486 TL, will continue to increase until 2023. 35.84% had achieved an increase.