Berlin The report on the status of electricity supply security in Germany, which the Federal Cabinet approved at the beginning of February, paints a optimistic picture. It states that the secure supply of electricity is guaranteed in the period 2025 to 2031 – despite the increasing power consumption by heat pumps, electric vehicles or electrolysers and even with a complete phase-out of coal by 2030.
“This means that the very high level of security of supply in Germany, even in a European comparison, can be maintained,” is the summary of the Federal Network Agency, which prepared the report for the federal government. So is the supply of electricity unproblematic in the second half of the decade?
Not everyone shares the Federal Network Agency’s optimism. Even Klaus Müller, President of the authority, has repeatedly pointed out in recent weeks that the calculation only works out if everything runs like clockwork. And that means: The expansion of renewables must progress and the currently missing back-up power plants must be built quickly, which are initially to be operated with natural gas and later with hydrogen.
The report also states that Germany will even “perspectively become a net importer”. But that too is subject to conditions. It is necessary that the assumed expansion of renewable energies “and also the investments in conventional plants in Europe are realized”, according to the report. Because that is the prerequisite for Germany to be able to reliably draw on electricity from neighboring countries in times of shortage.
However, it is by no means certain that this will happen. “Available capacities are being reduced across Europe,” warns Alexander Weiss, head of the global energy sector at McKinsey. Available capacities are power plants that can be switched on and off at will, such as coal or gas power plants. They are therefore guarantors for reliable performance that is available at all times – unlike wind turbines or photovoltaic systems.
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“Our analyzes give the following picture: While the peak load of 645 gigawatts (GW) in 2030 is only just above the total secured generation capacity of 637 GW, this gap will widen to up to 116 GW by 2035,” calculates Weiss. “Based on this analysis, a possible recourse to guaranteed power from other European countries in the event of shortages in Germany appears optimistic,” he says.
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Weiss’ conclusions are based on a comprehensive analysis of the European electricity market recently presented by McKinsey. According to Weiss’ observations, Europe is heading towards a situation with “insufficient disposable capacities”.
This leads to growing uncertainties in the system. “Many situations with high loads can only be managed in the future if consumers are also involved in the solution to a large extent – with the corresponding economic consequences,” he warns.
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What Weiss means: The involvement of consumers could consist of taking consumers off the grid under certain conditions. But the expert doesn’t think that’s a good idea: “The future of power supply shouldn’t lie in smoothing out peak consumption through shutdowns. This is certainly useful and necessary to a limited extent. But it must not become the mainstay of the overall system,” he said.
“The future of power supply shouldn’t be about smoothing peaks in consumption through shutdowns.” Alexander Weiss, head of global energy at McKinsey
In Germany, there is currently a heated debate about the conditions under which e-cars or electric heat pumps may be taken off the grid in the future in order to stabilize the grid. The manufacturers of e-cars and heat pumps say that such interventions should only be market-based and should not lead to any restrictions on use or loss of comfort.
The network operators, on the other hand, also want to be able to intervene in a controlling manner without rewarding the electricity consumers. The debate is very charged, although it is not about large-scale or long-term shutdowns of entire streets or factory premises.
Weiss also has doubts that the targets for the expansion of renewables, which the traffic light coalition has set itself and are the basis for the assumptions of the security of supply report, can be achieved. The same applies to the construction of back-up capacities: “The construction of new gas-fired power plants is by no means a foregone conclusion. The gas turbine builders are working at full capacity for years – at least in the short term there are therefore no additional turbines on the market,” he says.
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The Federal Ministry of Economics only started the “Platform for a climate-neutral electricity system” on Monday. This year, representatives from politics, science and business are to develop proposals for the future design of the electricity market. One of the most important goals is to create the conditions for the construction of additional power plants, which will always step in when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining.
There are also reservations in the traffic light coalition with regard to the security of supply report. “The very optimistic assumptions show above all that we now have to create the right framework conditions. A new market design is urgently needed, in which new gas-fired power plants are also built,” Lukas Köhler, FDP parliamentary group leader, told the Handelsblatt. “European security of supply must not be jeopardized. That’s why we have to strengthen the European energy market now, but also do everything in Germany to ensure that we continue to have enough electricity at all times,” he added.
Apparently, the Federal Network Agency is also aware that the conclusions of the report are very optimistic. It is difficult to explain otherwise that shortly before the decision was taken by the cabinet, a passage was added which states that in order to be able to ensure security of supply under all circumstances, “scenarios that are critical situations and also continue to depict a reasonable worst-case scenario”. The Federal Network Agency will “continue to regularly monitor the security of the energy supply”.
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