Most experts expect a further decline in January – also because the prices will then no longer be compared with those from the second half of 2020, when VAT was temporarily reduced from 19 to 16 percent due to the corona crisis.
(Photo: dpa)
Berlin According to economists, the rise in the inflation rate in Germany, which has persisted for months, was stopped in December. Consumer prices are likely to have risen by 5.1 percent compared to the same month last year, according to a survey published on Tuesday by the Reuters news agency among 17 economists from German and international banks. This would keep the rate of inflation a touch below the November figure of 5.2 percent, the highest in almost three decades. It would be the first decline after five consecutive increases. The Federal Statistical Office published a first official estimate of price developments in December on Thursday.
“The main reason for the minimal decline is the lower gasoline and heating oil prices in December,” said Helaba economist Stefan Mütze. Most experts expect a further decline in January – also because the prices will then no longer be compared with those from the second half of 2020, when VAT was temporarily reduced from 19 to 16 percent due to the corona crisis. “In this respect, we should have seen the climax,” said Mütze. The chief economist at Berenberg Bank, Holger Schmieding, comes to a similar conclusion. “The trend reversal will come in January at the latest, with luck it began in December,” he said.
“Catch-up effects in wages”
The economists have not yet given the all-clear, as inflation is likely to remain significantly higher at least in the first few months of the new year. “The supply chain problem is only gradually decreasing,” said Mütze. “The pre-product prices have risen sharply. This will also be reflected in the inflation rates. ”In the medium term, further increases in costs due to climate policy are to be expected. In addition, the baby boomers are retiring, which is likely to exacerbate the labor shortage. The Helaba economist therefore expects: “Catch-up effects must also be expected with wages”.
In view of the high inflation, there is resentment in the German economy about the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). “The ECB is not doing too little, it is doing the wrong thing,” recently the President of the Federal Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA), Dirk Jandura, told the Reuters news agency. “The fact that it helps to stabilize state finances in times of crisis can be politically justified – but not in the long term.” In the long term, this endangers trust in the currency through the destruction of monetary value. A departure from this policy is therefore necessary. “We should take the current development seriously,” said the President of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), Peter Adrian, with a view to the price development. “What worries me in this regard: The ECB has not yet given any real signal to exit its loose monetary policy.”
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