According to the latest survey released by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE), the vast majority of US economists rate the probability of the country going into recession within the next 12 months as 50 percent or less. While about 71 percent of the respondents expressed this view, this result marks a sharp return from the previous survey conducted in April. In April’s survey, there was an almost even split between those who predicted a recession and those who did not.
More than a quarter of those polled in July predict the probability of a recession within the next year to be 25 percent or less.
On the other hand, the rest of the respondents point out that the US economy still faces some risks and the possibility of recession should not be ignored. In this context, fluctuations in the economy and global economic events should be considered as factors that may affect the future situation.
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