German bank Commerzbank shared its analysis for the dollar rate. Accordingly, the Turkish Lira may first experience a stagnant period against the dollar, but then, with the clarification of the parameters of the new policy, the dollar may start to rise again against the TL. Here are the highlights from Commerzbank’s analysis:
TRY on its own may be stable for a while as the as yet unknown policy environment prevents aggressive market positioning.
However, the general expectation is that the new chairman, Hafize Gaye Erkan, will raise the basic interest rate to around 20% from the current 8.50% level.
In addition, the accompanying comments and possible changes in capital controls and currency restrictions will also have a significant impact on the mood and outlook.
For a while, the Lira may stabilize on its own due to the as yet unknown future policy environment, preventing aggressive market positioning.
However, we anticipate that the devaluation pressure on TRY will return once the new policy parameters become clear.
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