Brussels, Berlin The Ukrainian armed forces say they have launched a long-awaited offensive in the south. First reports from the front indicate that they have succeeded in inflicting casualties on the Russian occupiers. So is the tide gradually turning in Ukraine?
How high the Russian losses are and whether the front was actually broken through cannot be assessed so far. Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed Ukrainian attacks but claimed they “failed miserably.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, on the other hand, threatened: “If the Russian soldiers want to survive, now is the time to go home.”
The operation shows one thing in any case: in the seventh month the war entered a new phase.
Modern Western weapons such as the American Himars multiple rocket launcher and the German Panzerhaubitze 2000 have long since arrived in the battlefield and have been inflicting significant casualties on the Russian armed forces for weeks. The Ukrainian Defense Minister, Oleksiy Resnikov, raves about the precision of the Himar missiles, saying they worked “like a scalpel”.
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“Western weapons – including German ones – make a military difference in Ukraine’s favour,” agrees military expert Nico Lange, once chief of staff to former Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.
According to US information, the Ukrainians have recently succeeded in destroying ammunition depots, command posts, anti-aircraft and radar positions of the invaders. As a result, the intensity of the Russian artillery attacks decreased significantly, the losses of the Ukrainian defenders also decreased significantly. President Zelensky said the number of soldiers killed had fallen from up to 200 to 30 a day.
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The Himars missile launchers are far superior to Russian weapon systems in terms of range and accuracy. Above all, it is their commitment that laid the foundation for the offensive that has now started. Ukraine’s goal is to push the Russians back to the Dnieper River. The Ukrainian leadership has repeatedly emphasized the liberation of the city of Cherson, which was conquered by Russia in the first weeks of the war, as a strategic priority.
FDP defense politician Marcus Ferber, who was recently in Ukraine, actually sees signs that the situation is tilting in Ukraine’s favour. “The tide is beginning to turn,” he says. “But the road to victory against the invading forces is still a long way off. We must continue to support the ambushed here.”
British intelligence reported on Tuesday that the Russian occupiers in the Kherson region were suffering from personnel and supply problems. “Since the beginning of August, Russia has made significant efforts to strengthen its forces on the west bank of the Dnieper River around Kherson,” says a recent situation report. The units in the south were probably supplemented by those from the east. However, most of the units around Kherson remain undermanned and depend on fragile supply lines via ferry and pontoon bridges.
Counteroffensive in southern Ukraine
According to Russian information, the two crossings over the Dnieper near Antonivka and Nowa Kachowka were fired on again during the night. With such attacks, the Ukrainian army has been trying for some time to cut off supplies to the Russian bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper. Explosions were also reported from Cherson itself and from the city of Melitopol, which was also occupied by the Russians.
Gustav Gressel, military expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), currently considers it difficult to assess the fighting. The balance of power in Kherson is about one to one, so Ukraine does not have the numerical superiority to launch an attack. “The Russian offensive against Bakhmut and Avdiivka is still rolling,” said Gressel. Both cities are located in the Donbass.
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Last week, the Russian army tried to launch small-scale attacks against Ukrainian positions. Once again it turned out that the Russian forces were poorly managed and badly coordinated. “The Ukrainians then conducted aggressive reconnaissance against the Russian vulnerabilities and appear to have found an opportunity to override the Russians,” explains Gressel.
The poor morale of soldiers recruited by force from the occupied territories who have to fight on the Russian side may also have played a role in the Ukrainian breakthrough. The problem is that Ukraine does not have enough forces. However, their officers are far better trained than the Russians, their units are managed much more flexibly, and their soldiers are more motivated.
Experts are calling for Germany to quickly deliver more weapons to Ukraine.
(Photo: Reuters)
All in all, this means that the Ukrainians have every chance of crushing the Russians. “Hardly any reserves come across the Dnepr,” argues Gressel. The Russians would have a chance to stabilize the situation again if they could reinforce the line of defense. Gressel also emphasizes that Western weapons played a significant role in increasing the Ukrainians’ fighting power.
Further support for the Ukrainian army was also an issue at the meeting of EU defense ministers in Prague on Tuesday. Germany was represented by Parliamentary State Secretary Siemtje Möller (SPD). “The situation remains very serious. It’s about the security of Europe as a whole,” she said at the start of the talks. Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov also attended the meeting.
Demands for immediate arms deliveries from Germany
Möller explained that “a long-term perspective of support and also the coordination of joint international aid and training for Ukraine will be discussed”. “If Russia, and it is doing it, prepares for a long-term and longer war, then we must too.” Greater coordination of aid is needed – and that is the subject of the talks. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) had announced that Germany could support Ukraine primarily with artillery and air defense.
Military expert Lange notes that Berlin could do a lot more: “The aim of the arms deliveries must be to quickly change the military situation in Ukraine’s favour. More howitzers and, above all, armored vehicles are better for Ukraine now than deliveries announced for 2023.” It is incomprehensible that Germany is supplying long-range, precise artillery, but no armored vehicles such as the Marder, Fuchs, Dingo or Mungo, which are used militarily because of the strong Russian artillery had long been badly needed.
FDP politician Ferber also makes it clear: “The Ukrainian army still urgently needs tanks and artillery. We have to deliver this now.”
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