Kyiv A massive explosion, blazing wagons and parts of the Crimean Bridge that fell into the sea gave Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin a rude awakening on the day after his 70th birthday. Videos of a freight train’s fuel wagons bursting into flames as the sun rose over the iconic bridge spread wildly on Saturday morning.
There was talk of three deaths. Putin’s heart project, the 19-kilometer connection he opened between Russia and the peninsula annexed in 2014, has hit the core.
For a moment it looked as if the lifeline from Russia to the annexed Crimea, which is also important for supplying Russian troops, had been destroyed. This could have had a decisive impact on the front in southern Ukraine. But after a few hours it is clear that the damage is probably not as bad as expected – and can be repaired. The traffic is rolling again.
One day after the heavy explosion on the connecting bridge from the mainland to the annexed peninsula of Crimea, which is strategically important for Russia, divers are examining the damage to the structure on Sunday. “The situation can be managed. It’s unpleasant, but not fatal,” Russian Crimean Governor Sergey Axyonov told reporters. “Obviously, emotions were triggered and there’s a healthy desire to seek revenge.”
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A truck exploded on the road and railway bridge on Saturday morning, seven fuel transport trailers of a freight train caught fire, parts of the road collapsed. The cause and whether it was an accident or an attack is still not clear. There were discussions among experts as to how an explosive device in a truck could cause such serious damage in different places over a distance of more than one kilometer.
Great horror at renewed debacle in Russia
On Ukrainian television, former Russian MP Ilya Ponomarev, who fled to Kyiv, said it could have been a multi-part special operation. In August, after the car bomb attack on pro-war Darya Dugina, Ponomarev spoke of an underground organization of pro-Ukrainian partisans that allegedly carried out large-scale attacks.
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But either way, after a large number of defeats, the horror in Russia about the new debacle is great. The 19-kilometer-long bridge crosses the Kerch Strait, a strait between the Black and Azov Seas – and above all: It is a prestige project of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin himself had it in 2018 – four years after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea – opened.
The bridge plays a crucial role in Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, because a significant part of the supplies for the soldiers in the Crimea and in the largely occupied southern Ukrainian region of Kherson are delivered via it from the Russian mainland. Crimea has repeatedly been the target of Ukrainian counterattacks in recent months. Among other things, an important airfield was hit.
Car traffic on the Kerch Bridge was restricted for about ten hours after the explosion. According to the Russian Ministry of Transport, freight and long-distance passenger trains have been running again according to the timetable since Sunday morning.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Crimea has enough fuel for a month. There is enough food for more than two months. The Russian troops in southern Ukraine could also be supplied entirely via existing land and sea routes. Putin ordered increased security measures.
Ukraine celebrates the attack on the Crimean bridge as a new triumph
However, political experts such as James Nixey from the British think tank Chatham House were skeptical. The Russians could repair the bridge. “But you can’t defend them while losing a war,” he said.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is celebrating the attack on the bridge as a new triumph – similar to the sinking of the Russian warship “Moskva” in the spring. “For this holiday we are releasing a new stamp with the Crimean bridge – or rather what is left of it,” announced the head of the Ukrainian Post Office immediately. The Secretary of Ukraine’s Security Council combined footage of the partially destroyed structure with a video of Hollywood legend Marilyn Monroe singing the birthday song “Happy Birthday, Mr. President.”
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Despite countless threats from Moscow to hit back hard in an attack on the Crimean Bridge, Putin initially held back. He appointed a commission of inquiry and a new commander for the Russian troops in Ukraine, and ordered the bridge to be guarded more closely. New threats? none.
The power apparatus reacted soberly so as not to panic the tens of thousands of Russian tourists on the holiday peninsula, which was still extremely popular in the golden autumn. Everything is taken care of, said Crimea boss Sergei Aksjonov. He said vacationers should be allowed to stay longer at government expense. The subtropical Black Sea idyll was repeatedly shaken by attacks this summer. There have been several incidents with drones – including around the coastal town of Kerch, where the Crimean Bridge lands.
Russian political scientist Tatyana Stanovaya wrote that Putin is used to playing down and putting up with defeats. Putin often strikes back with a long delay. At the same time, many experts see him as a person driven to war who no longer has the situation under control.
What the attack means for Putin’s war in Ukraine
Everyone agrees that the images of the burning Crimean Bridge, which is one of the best-secured structures in Russia, are devastating for Putin’s aspirations to become a great power. Military expert Yuri Fyodorov said the damage to the bridge made it difficult to supply Russian troops in the occupied southern Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia. That could help Ukraine to attack more effectively in its offensive there.
Already in the summer in Crimea, train traffic was temporarily suspended due to the explosion at an ammunition depot in the Dzhankoye region. Time and again important railway systems are hit during the attacks for the supply of the Russian troops.
Fyodorov also pointed out that the routes from the Russian region of Rostov to the occupied Donetsk region in the Mariupol area are also heavily used for the delivery of supplies. And there, too, the risk of Ukrainian attacks is considered high.
However, the analysts see everything as having a psychological effect, because the Crimean bridge that exploded is not just a “sign of Putin’s weakness”. “All of this leads to a massive weakening of the loyalty of the security structures to the country’s political leadership,” said political scientist Abbas Galliamov. It could lead to discord in the power apparatus and increase the risk of a coup.
Galliamov saw little scope for a sharp reaction from the Russian side to the bridge attack. He does not expect a possible use of a tactical nuclear weapon, which has been discussed again and again, because it is neither effective nor brings any advantage. Above all, the attack on the bridge is another sign that Russia will lose the war. He said, “Defeat must be conceded and a peace treaty signed.”
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