Dusseldorf The German stock market is on the up after positive Chinese economic data. At noon, the Dax rose by 0.4 percent to 13,635 points. The daily high is 13,715 points. Last Friday, the leading index closed 0.7 percent lower at 13,574 points.
Chinese trade data beat expectations. Thanks to strong exports, the trade surplus in China is more than $101 billion, the highest since data collection began in 1987. Demand from abroad is high, including companies from Germany. And the surplus shows that the Chinese economy is recovering at a fast pace from the recent Covid lockdowns.
Despite these positive figures, the upward potential of the Dax is likely to be limited in the coming trading days. A longer breather is considered likely because the Dax has already risen by 1400 points from the annual low in the past five weeks.
Sentiment expert Stephan Heibel advises investors after evaluating the current Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment: “After the Dax has risen by ten percent, investors should no longer chase the prices, but wait for setbacks if they still want to get involved.”
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Finally, last Friday’s US jobs data put major interest rate hikes back on the floor in the US. Before the data was released, a 50 basis point rate hike seemed likely. Now, according to the Chicago Stock Exchange CME’s Fed Watch tool, 75 percent of professionals believe a 75 basis point hike during the next session on Sept. 21.
A few weaker trading days could follow. In addition, from a technical point of view, the Dax is facing several important resistances that would only be overcome with sustainable prices above 13,800 points. The 100-day line, which shows the medium-term trend, is around 13,760 points. The 100-day line shows the average of prices over the past 100 days.
The entire area around 13,800 points is an old resistance zone. That means: The Dax also failed at high points in 2020 at this mark. Last week’s high of 13,793 points and the subsequent profit-taking show that the leading German index will not have an easy time overcoming this hurdle.
According to Martin Utschneider, technical analyst at the private bank Donner & Reuschel, further course development will be decided at the 13,750 point mark. If the leading index fails at this mark, the stock exchange barometer could go back towards 13,000 points.
The larger classification shows: The 200-day line is currently only at 14,573 points. This shows the long-term trend. So for the time being, the current recovery in the index is just an up move within an intact down trend, a bear market rally.
Crude oil is becoming more expensive again
Oil prices are further away from their lowest level since February, which was reached last week. Brent crude oil from the North Sea increased in price by almost one percent to $95.69 a barrel.
The booming US job market and surprisingly strong Chinese exports brightened the outlook. With a drop of 13.7 percent, the price of Brent crude oil fell last week, the sharpest since April 2020.
Look at individual values
SiemensEnergy: The energy technology group, which was recently in focus because of a turbine for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, is struggling with losses. The reasons for this are that Siemens Energy is restructuring its Russian business and also has problems with the ailing wind energy subsidiary Siemens Gamesa. The stock lost 0.4 percent.
Valneva: The Austro-French pharmaceutical company has developed a vaccine against Lyme disease. However, the stock fell 0.4 percent. A study involving at least 5,000 people over a period of five years will begin in the coming weeks. Valneva expects the Lyme disease vaccine, known as VLA15, to have annual global sales of $1 billion if successful.
beat: Investors sell the stock after a downgrade. The shares in the office furniture retailer fell by a peak of 7.9 percent after the analysts at Berenberg put the title on “hold” from the previous “buy”.
Here you can go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.