Dusseldorf The Dax started the new trading week with a slight upward trend, but then gave up the gains again. Most recently, the leading index was almost unchanged at 15,029 points.
On Thursday, the Dax initially seemed to be on a consolidation course. But then on Friday it recaptured the 15,000 point mark and ended the trading week up 0.8 percent at 15,034 points, the consolidation seemed to have been postponed. Since the Dax has risen sharply in a short time, further setbacks would not come as a surprise to investors.
Positive impulses came from the USA at the weekend: the US indices all closed in positive territory on Friday, the technology-heavy Nasdaq even recorded its largest daily gain since the end of November with a plus of 2.9 percent.
The reason for this is likely to be the unexpectedly good quarterly figures from Netflix. The streaming provider increased its revenue by 1.9 percent to $7.85 billion, and user numbers rose by 7.6 million to 231 million in the fourth quarter.
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“The European stock exchanges are benefiting today from the strong Friday on Wall Street. Positive targets from overseas are always welcome on the trading floor in this country,” said portfolio manager Thomas Altmann from asset manager QC Partners. The balance sheet season, which is really picking up speed this week, still has to justify the price increases. “Profits are the fuel of the stock market. With too many disappointments in earnings season, the current rally will quickly run out of fuel.”
The strong Wall Street also boosted the Japanese stock exchanges, which followed Wall Street into the plus. There will be no further signals from Asia this week, as the stock exchanges in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan will remain closed all week for the Chinese New Year holidays.
Investors continue to focus on monetary policy. In the evening, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak at Deutsche Börse’s New Year’s reception. Market participants are hoping for indications of how much the ECB will raise interest rates at the next few meetings.
Economists surveyed by Reuters recently expected that the European Central Bank will raise the deposit rate, which banks receive for parking excess funds at the central bank, by a further 0.5 percentage points in February and March. The economists surveyed assume that the ECB will then raise interest rates by a further 0.25 percent in the next quarter and then take a break.
At noon, the Bundesbank will also publish its first monthly report of the year, which should give an indication of how the monetary watchdogs assess the situation with regard to inflation and the economy. The European Commission will also publish data on consumer confidence in the euro zone in January.
Look at the chart technique
The Dax continues to focus on the area of 15,000 points. The first stop-loss marks, which investors use to protect themselves against falling prices, are likely to be just below this level.
From a technical point of view, a healthy consolidation would be beneficial. There is further technical support in the area around 14,800 points, as well as short-term around the current price level of 14,980 points. On the upside, the technical resistance stands at 15,365 points.
Look at the euro and oil
The euro rose significantly at the beginning of the week and rose overnight to its highest level since April 2022. Most recently, the euro was quoted at $ 1.0892. On the one hand, this is probably due to the now more optimistic forecasts for the European economy, and on the other hand to the confirmation by some ECB representatives that they want to further tighten monetary policy significantly. “The expectation that the ECB will tighten interest rates more than the Fed this year is giving the common currency wings,” says portfolio manager Altmann. In addition, rising interest rates made investments in the euro zone more attractive for international investors.
Oil prices hardly moved at the start of the week. On Monday morning, a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent for delivery in March cost 87.49 US dollars. A barrel of the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) variety, also for March delivery, cost $81.49.
Individual values in focus
Salzgitter: The steelmaker plans to cut around 500 to 800 jobs by 2033. In the course of the conversion of production to more climate-friendly processes, fewer employees will be needed in the future, CEO Gunnar Groebler told the “Braunschweiger Zeitung” on Sunday. The jobs could “be reduced over time in a socially acceptable way using the age pyramid alone”. Salzgitter’s shares rose by 1.1 percent.
Symrise: The fragrance and flavor manufacturer has apparently alienated its shareholders. The group announced on Friday that it would write down its stake in Swedencare in the amount of 126 million euros. The stock was down 7.8 percent.
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