Dusseldorf The German stock market starts the stock market week again with a new record high. On Monday afternoon, the Dax marked a new high at 16,150 points. This is almost 30 points above the record he set in Friday trading. In the further course, the leading index then traded slightly in the plus at 16,119 points.
As expected, the Dax is working its way towards 16,200 points with small steps. Once again, the manageable trading volume is striking. By late afternoon, only around 30 million papers had been traded again.
The previous week was already marked by a series of new record highs. The bottom line was a week plus of a manageable 0.3 percent, after a gain of more than two percent the week before.
That doesn’t seem to satisfy investors – they were hoping for more. This is the result of the new evaluation of the Handelsblatt survey Dax Sentiment among more than 6000 private investors. The mood is still very good. However, the sentiment fell from 6.0 to 4.5. That doesn’t change the fact that the overall picture remains positive.
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This is helped by the fact that the leading index was over 16,000 points every day at the closing price – and thus clearly made it clear that it has established itself at this level. A drop below 16,000 points was very short-lived.
As a result, the multi-week uptrend remains intact. Since the beginning of October, both the highest and the lowest prices have been higher and higher on a weekly basis – a sign of an upward movement. In order for the said trend to continue, the Dax must not fall below 15,985 points in the new trading week. On the upside, the Dax has already reached its goal with the new record on Monday.
There are also seasonal factors: In the last quarter, the Dax posted a strong performance in a multi-year comparison. The stock market months of November and December are often among the busiest of the year.
However, investors should be able to withstand setbacks. Because the following applies: The Dax has seen a very dynamic rise. At the beginning of October, the stock market barometer was still at 15,000 points.
There are a number of factors that could trigger such a reset. Large parts of the economy are still struggling with a shortage of intermediate products – production is accordingly limited. The rise in raw material prices has lost momentum, but prices are still at a high level. Inflation in the USA continues to rise, and price pressure is also increasing in Europe. And central banks around the world are introducing the end of loose monetary policy, while an interest rate hike at the European Central Bank (ECB) is a long way off.
The advantage is: All these negative factors have long been known to investors. So they should already be taken into account in the current price level. With the rapidly increasing number of corona infections, there is now a new problem. The potential damage to the economy seems to be limited this time around – and with it the impact of the pandemic on the overall market.
In the case of single values, however, the beginning of the fourth wave leaves traces. Investors are increasingly reaching for stocks from online retailers and suppliers. Zalando, for example, is at the top of the Dax with a plus of 4.5 percent, followed by Hellofresh and Delivery Hero, among others. Home24 titles listed in the SDax are 14 percent higher. Westwing, Global Fashion and About You also recorded high price gains. Shop pharmacy titles are more than three percent more expensive.
How gold and the euro move
The gold price continues to trade near its highest level in five months. A troy ounce of the precious metal costs $ 1,868 on Monday. Gold benefits, among other things, from increased demand from Asia and from its property as a protection against rising prices.
In October, prices in the USA rose by 6.2 percent, the highest they have been in 31 years. Investors are now increasingly expecting an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in mid-2022.
The prospect of rising interest rates in the world’s most important currency area strengthens the US dollar. This in turn ensures that the euro will remain close to its lowest level since mid-2020. The European common currency is quoted at 1.1423 US dollars.
Against a basket of other important currencies, the dollar gained more strongly in the past week than it had in five months and reached 95.27 in this so-called dollar index, the highest level since July 2020. In this index, in addition to the US dollar six other major currencies are represented, each weighted according to the country’s trade volume with the USA.
Look at individual values
Airbus: The aircraft manufacturer is one of the Dax favorites with a plus of up to three percent. Airbus had won a major order worth billions on the sidelines of the air show in Dubai. The airlines of US investor Indigo Partners ordered another 255 aircraft from the A321neo family.
Lufthansa: The UBS analysts have canceled their sell recommendation and also raised the price target from EUR 4.90 to EUR 7.05. Lufthansa stocks in the MDax initially rise by three percent to 6.81 euros before investors take profits. On Friday, the airline announced that it had repaid the last remaining state aid from the federal government.
Vantage Towers: The radio tower operator increased its sales thanks to new rental agreements. In the first half of the business year to the end of September, the revenues climbed by 2.5 percent to 494 million euros, announced the Vodafone subsidiary on Monday. Adjusted operating profit (Ebitda) increased by 2.6 percent to 427 million euros. The share rises in the MDax by two percent, but then falls into the red.
Talanx: Despite the damage caused by the flood disaster in Europe, the insurer is becoming more optimistic. The surplus is likely to reach the upper end of the previous target range of EUR 900 million to EUR 950 million this year. In 2022, the net profit is expected to be between 1.05 and 1.15 billion euros. The share still loses one percent in the small value index SDax.
Shell: The British-Dutch oil company plans to give up its complex share structure and relocate its headquarters to the UK for tax reasons. Shell wants to keep its investors on board and also defuse a conflict with the activist shareholder Third Point. A simple share structure makes it easier for Shell to buy back its own shares, it said. Shell shares gained more than two percent on the London Stock Exchange.
BBVA: The Spanish bank wants to take over the Turkish bank Garanti completely. BBVA is offering the Garanti shareholders 12.20 Turkish Lira (around EUR 1.07) per share, the Spaniards announced. That results in a total price of around 2.25 billion euros and is 15 percent above the price on Friday. BBVA currently owns a little less than half of the Garanti shares. BBVA shares lose up to six percent in Madrid. In Istanbul, Garanti titles are up by ten percent.
What the Dax chart technology says
Two upside gaps that the Dax tore in the first week of November are still relevant. A gap was temporarily closed on Wednesday. The shortened gap is now between 15,985 and 15,973 points. Another is between 15,760 and 15,690 points. Both gaps serve as technical support on the downside if the Dax should fall below 16,000 points again.
Investors are also positive about the medium-term picture of the DAX. Due to the rapid increase in recent weeks, the 200-day line relevant for long-term investors – this shows the average price level of the past 200 trading days – is almost 800 points below the current level at 15,284 points.
Here you go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.