Dax is back on course for recovery

For stockbrokers who have already experienced a regional war on the financial market, such price gains, including a stabilization of the entire market, are no surprise. After the attack, an important finding prevailed on the market. In view of the Russian superiority, the war is likely to be over sooner than some believe. Almost all expressions of solidarity have yielded one result: the war remains regional, Ukraine is left to the Russians. Blueprints are the occupations of Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014.

Today’s price gains do not have to mean that the Dax will immediately go back into rally mode. Investors should pay attention to the following brands. Firstly, there are 14,586 points, the lowest it was last Wednesday, the trading day before the attack order. Because immediately after the beginning of the war, the market was reassessed, there was a large downward price gap between the lowest level on Wednesday and the highest price on Thursday of yesterday with 14,221 points. Should the Dax reach the mark of 14,586 points, the pre-war level would be reached.

On the other hand, the medium-term groundbreaking mark of 14,800 points is just above that. Sustained courses above would mean: business as usual. The war would have lost its terror, the companies would have adapted to the changed conditions.

Nevertheless, you should keep an eye on the underside. Courses below 13,800 points, a new low for the year, would mean a protracted war.

Sustained listings below 13,500 points should even result in a bear market and thus trigger a new long-term market phase with further massive price losses. But Florian Ielpo from Lombard Odier Investment Managers is certain: “A long-term bear market is not usually triggered by geopolitical unrest”.

The situation would escalate if Russia cuts off the energy supply to Europe. For asset manager Markus Schön “you are then caught in a spiral of aggression, at the end of which the Dax would not only be 10,000 points lower, but Russia would completely occupy Europe”.

However, the past trading days have also shown that fluctuations on the stock exchanges are likely to remain high. For example, the US technology index Nasdaq 100 had an intraday trading range of more than seven percent on Thursday. The volatility index of the European selection index Euro Stoxx 50 was also more than 42 points yesterday, Thursday, the highest since June 2020. The higher this index, the greater the price fluctuations futures market professionals expect in the coming days and weeks. For Thomas Altmann from the investment house QC Partners, “these are numbers that make it unlikely that the stock markets will calm down quickly.”

Heavy price fluctuations in the price of gold

The price of gold also remains extremely volatile. Yesterday, Thursday, the highest price was $1973, the highest level since September 2020. It then went down again to $1878. This Friday, the price per troy ounce (31.1 grams) is back at 1902 dollars. According to UBS analysts, gold could reach $2,000 “if things get worse”. Exchange-traded funds that invest in gold and other precious metals have seen massive inflows this year.

Significant price gains on the Russian stock exchanges

After the sanctions imposed so far, the Russian stock markets are reacting with relief. The Moscow index Micex initially rose by more than 14 percent on the local stock exchange. is currently only a good three percent ahead. As recently as Thursday, the stock market barometer was still 30 percent in the red. The loss in value at the end of trading was only 11.5 percent.

The Russian Traded Index (RTX), which can be traded on the Vienna Stock Exchange and is quoted in dollars and made up of 14 large Russian stocks, is up almost 20 percent again. However, the index has been around 53 percent down since the beginning of the year. On Thursday, this index had meanwhile more than halved, at the end of trading the minus was still 40 percent.

Investors are stocking up on the Russian currency again after the recent sell-off. In turn, the dollar and euro fell by around one percent to 83.35 and 93.47 rubles respectively. On Thursday, they had hit record highs of 89.60 and 99.99 rubles, respectively, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Similar to the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, the analysts at Morgan Stanley expect the Russian central bank to raise interest rates by four percentage points in order to stop the ruble from falling.

Look at the individual values

Armor Values: On the second day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, more investors are investing in Western European armaments companies. The shares of Rheinmetall and BAe Systems rose by up to eight percent and marked a two-year high at 105.60 euros and 665 pence respectively. Thales stocks advanced 4.1 percent. The invasion could lead to higher defense spending, writes JP Morgan Cazenove analyst David Perry. In addition, a reconsideration of the industry is conceivable, as a result of which ethical reservations about investments in this sector have shrunk.

VW/Porsche: VW concluded a framework agreement with its majority shareholder for the planned IPO of the sports car subsidiary Porsche AG. A broker described the cornerstones of the deal as encouraging. Now everything depends on whether the IPO will go through and at what price the new papers will be sold. VW shares rose 4.4 percent and Porsche SE shares rose 2.1 percent.

BASF: The chemical company has announced price increases and expects less profit. Shareholders should still get more money distributed. The share loses 3.1 percent and is one of the biggest losers in the Dax 40. The losses of the current week add up to around 13 percent. The last time the stock market crashed in March 2020 was that strong. Analyst Chris Counihan from the investment bank Jefferies complained that the operating profit for the quarter fell short of expectations. The same applies to the profit target for 2022.

SiemensEnergy: The shares of Siemens Energy are traded this Friday with a dividend discount of 0.10 euros. Compared to the previous day’s close of 19.49 euros, this means a minus of 0.5 percent. The paper is currently trading at EUR 19.28, a drop of 1.1 percent.

Here you can go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.