Dusseldorf The US jobs data have dealt a serious blow to the German stock market. The Dax slipped by more than 200 points within a few minutes, but was then able to recover somewhat. The leading index is currently 0.2 percent down at 14,468 points. The stock market barometer had previously reached a new rally high of 14,583 points and increased hopes that prices would continue to rise.
However, a solid US jobs report increased investor concerns that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will remain tight for longer. Non-farm payrolls rose by 263,000 last month and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent. Experts expected US nonfarm payrolls to add just 200,000 compared to 261,000 in the previous month.
Another number is likely to give the US Federal Reserve a lot more headaches: wages are rising faster again. This ended the seven-month trend. The danger of the so dreaded price/wage spiral is far from over.
Despite the strong labor market report, capital market expert Thomas Altmann still thinks it is likely that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more slowly from the upcoming December meeting. In his opinion, the giant steps of 75 basis points should nevertheless be a thing of the past. However, 50 basis point steps could now accompany us longer than previously thought.
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The previous trading week and especially yesterday, Thursday, had shown how difficult it was for the Dax to break the 14,500 point mark. Since Monday of the past few weeks, the leading index has been listed in a range of comparatively low 250 points. On the upper side it was 14,571 points until today, Friday, below the mark of 14,321 points. This mark also held today’s Friday. The daily low is 14,372 points. Nevertheless, technical analysts consider it likely that the leading index will test the 14,150 mark in the coming days.
Support for the Dax comes from the USA: There, the S&P 500 surpassed the much-noticed 200-day line last Tuesday, around two weeks after the Dax, and remains above this mark. The fact that the German stock market index is a quasi trendsetter for the big “US brother” is one of the unusual events.
On the German stock market, this average line, formed from the prices of the past 200 trading days, is currently falling by around two points and is at 13,538 points. This line should turn by January 2023 at the latest and then be “tested” again by the leading index. At least that is what the typical scenario of a sustainable trend reversal looks like, about which there has been no doubt so far.
Inflation is a thing of the past on the foreign exchange market
The comeback of the euro continues. At $1.054, the common currency is trading as high as it was last in June. In the past four weeks, the euro has climbed more than 7 percent against the dollar.
Commerzbank foreign exchange analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann is also surprised by the speed with which the foreign exchange market anticipates future developments. It is about pricing out the fear of inflation on the foreign exchange market, which is now running faster than expected.
A significant drop in inflation now seems so certain that the time after that is now “played” on the foreign exchange market. And it doesn’t look positive for the dollar because inflation was the trigger for the aggressive Fed policy that propelled the dollar to the top of the G10 currencies, the world’s major currency pairs, in 2022, says Leuchtmann.
He sees the greatest risk in Commerzbank’s price target of $1.10 against the euro being reached earlier than expected.
Look at individual values
Real estate values: Real estate values, which are considered interest-sensitive, are in demand on the stock market. Vonovia ended up at the top of the Dax with an increase of almost three percent, industry members such as Aroundtown and Tag Immobilien rose by 4.7 percent and 3.8 percent respectively, LEG and Deutsche Wohnen each climbed by more than two and a half percent.
With Grand City at the top of the SDax, the increase was almost 5.7 percent. Shares in the real estate investment provider Patrizia advanced by 2.4 percent, with an increased portfolio forecast following an acquisition in Denmark also providing tailwind.
stabilizer: The company’s dividend proposal has been well received by investors. The titles gain 1.7 percent to 63.05 euros. The industrial and automotive supplier proposes a dividend of 1.75 euros per share for 2022, 50 cents more than in the previous year. “This is clearly above market expectations,” said one trader.
Here you can go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.