Dax attacks mark of 15,800 points – upward trend remains intact

The important thing is the 200-day line that the Dax regained last Wednesday. This line shows the moving average of the past 200 trading days and is mainly used by long-term investors. Prices above the 200-day line are considered an upward trend; the line currently runs at just over 15,500 points.

Jeffrey Halley, chief market analyst at brokerage firm Oanda, sees two options for the course of the last week of trading: either the headlines will trigger ugly intraday movements due to the liquidity thinned out by the holidays, or the volatility will remain flat enough that doctors and If it was an EKG, nurses would scream ‘Code Blue’. “

At the moment it still looks like the second possibility: The Dax is hovering around the closing price of last Thursday (15,756 points), with less than 100 points between the daily high and the daily low. There was a similar scenario in 2016, when there were last four trading days between Christmas and New Year: At that time, the trading volume collapsed by 40 percent, while the Dax moved sideways in a trading range of just 77 points.

This year could be similar – but it doesn’t have to be. Because the trading days between Christmas and New Year are considered the period with the lowest trading volume, which can lead to larger price fluctuations: fewer buyers than usual are enough to move the prices. In that case, courses of more than 16,000 points would even be possible.

Many institutional investors have already closed their books for the current year. This can lead to price jumps because professional investors fail as a corrective. “The investors who are still active will only then take up new positions. when they smell bargains, ”explains Altmann. “It is more likely that after the price gains before Christmas, profits will now be taken.”

Investors focus on Omikron

Until the end of the year there are hardly any relevant economic data or company appointments, investors are therefore concentrating all the more on the development of the corona pandemic – and the numbers are increasing worldwide: For the first time in France there were more than 100,000 infections in one day, China reported at the weekend the highest daily increase in 21 months.

Most new infections are associated with the Omikron variant. As far as we know, this is less dangerous, but also more contagious than other virus variants. The fear is that the sheer volume of cases could overwhelm the hospitals as a result.

In the past week, some encouraging news about the effects of vaccinations against Omikron had ultimately tipped the scales in favor of a positive outcome. Accordingly, the current development is making investors more cautious again, after all, the corona pandemic is the greatest economic risk.

“Even if the infection rate flattens a little at first glance, a new wave of Omikron could paralyze social and economic life in the new year,” says analyst Jochen Stanzl from the online broker CMC Markets. “With this prospect, only a few investors should be willing to build up nicely larger positions now.”

Top economist Marcel Fratzscher warns in the Handelsblatt that new economic upheavals will inevitably threaten if the 2022 pandemic cannot be finally brought under control worldwide. “That could be the case with global supply chains, for example, or with a view to consumer demand, since people prefer to put their money on the high edge in times of such uncertainty,” explains the President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW).

Look at individual values

Lufthansa: The cancellation of 33,000 flights from mid-January due to lower demand is putting a strain on the airline’s shares. Lufthansa titles are slightly in the red.

Biontech: As long as the corona pandemic persists, vaccine manufacturers are doing good business. The US-listed Biontech share rose by around one percent on Xetra.

Wacker Chemie: The Munich specialty chemicals group plans to grow vigorously in the Biosolutions division this decade with the help of acquisitions. In 2030, the division is expected to bring in one billion euros in sales, four times as much as before. The operating return should rise to 25 percent from the last 15 percent, said Wacker CEO Christian Hartel of the “FAZ”. The share is 0.5 percent up.

Encavis: The Hamburg wind and solar park operator is completely separating from three wind farms in Austria. The regional supplier Wien Energie, which already a year ago had a 49 percent stake in the “Pongratzer Kogel” and “Herrenstein” wind farms in Styria and “Zagersdorf” in Burgenland, will now also take over the remaining 51 percent, said Encavis. Encavis titles are down 0.3 percent.

Lira rally ended again

The recovery of the Turkish currency has come to an end for the time being. In return, the dollar and euro rose by six percent each to 11.2941 and 12.831 lira, respectively.

After the lira tumbled from record low to record low, it had risen significantly in the past week. It was triggered by measures taken by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: In order to protect savers, the state should in future settle the difference between lira investments and comparable dollar investments from the state treasury.

The measures stabilized the lira, which had previously lost more than 50 percent of its value over the year. However, there are question marks about the potential budgetary and inflationary implications of this policy.

Experts also see the reason for the currency crisis and high inflation (more than 21 percent in November) in the unorthodox monetary policy of the Turkish central bank. At Erdogan’s insistence, the latter has repeatedly cut its key interest rate, although economists consider an increase to be the appropriate answer. For this reason, stockbrokers consider new record lows to be only a matter of time.

Here you go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.