Bitcoin volatility took a break as the $31,000 BTC price hit its yearly high. Bitcoin shorters are showing signs of betting on a short-term trend reversal. So there is a serious turning point on the horizon for the price of BTC.
Bitcoin lacks “strong confirmation” for a new rise
cryptocoin.comAs you follow, BTC continues to hover around $31,000. Thus, the second day of horizontal trading welcomed the market participants. The previous rally had stalled near the year’s high at $31,000. Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades argues that this area represents a popular invalidation point for those who have shorted BTC following the recent rise. In this context, the analyst makes the following statement:
Most of the shorts entering during this consolidation will likely place their stops above the local high of ~$30.8K. This provides excellent liquidity capture. The line in the sand is the $29.8K region and the Daily Open.
But it’s still possible for these shorts to win, according to Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. Pointing out that the open interest in the stock markets has increased against the fixed price performance, Maartunn states that this open interest has been accompanied by a sudden decrease in BTC/USD recently.
Trader Crypto Chase acknowledges that it has not received “strong confirmation” of a continuation near $31,000.
Meanwhile, for trader Elizy, there was no significant change in mood compared to the previous day as the consolidation continued. He tells his followers on Twitter that he “has no intention of shorting”. Because while BTC price action was moving in a narrow range, there was not much interest in the entries.
Wait and see mode is back
Elsewhere, the latest market update from crypto analysis firm Jarvis Labs underlines the uncertain nature of lower timeframe price action. Founder Ben Lilly comes to the following conclusion after examining various datasets:
I’m a little undecided here. I start clearing $24,000 before the options expire and instead head for an upward move towards the $32,000 range.
Lilly is referring to options that expire on June 23 and are valued at over $700 million. According to Lilly, it would be a mistake to bet that the rally will fade out too soon, thanks to the strong backlog. Based on this, Lilly makes the following comment:
All of which tells me that this rally should not be rushed to fade. Something inside me was saying yes, give up this rally because the halving is too far away. But several data points say otherwise. Perhaps a fading will show itself in July. For now, let’s follow the data to see if the trend continues.
These bullish factors “will not protect Bitcoin”
Bloomberg chief commodities strategist Mike McGlone talks about a few bullish factors that are keeping BTC back at the $30,000 mark and currently holding it there. These include Federal funds futures (Fed), the rising Nasdaq Composite Index, and the potential launch of several Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock. Still, the expert says there are bearish factors that are likely to overcome bullish factors and create headwinds for Bitcoin to rise further towards the $40,000 price level.
What Bitcoin is likely to encounter soon is a potential stock bear market and “vigilant central banks,” according to McGlone. During the last FOMC meeting, officials stated that they expect the Fed to make several rate hikes again this year, contrary to the crypto community’s hopes that it won’t happen at all. As for BlackRock’s application, McGlone states that if it is approved, the launch will not take place even this year. But a recession already awaits in the coming months. He sees this as likely to hit Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is in a bull market!
Cryptocurrency analyst Ki Young Ju claims that Bitcoin is currently in a bull market cycle after BTC finally surpassed $30,000. The head of CryptoQuant said in a recent tweet that the Bitcoin price-to-earnings ratio (PER) based on miner revenues is 73, which makes it an attractive price point for miners to sell. Therefore, he states that this indicates an upward phase. According to the expert, the current bullish phase exhibits certain cyclical patterns in the cryptocurrency industry.
As BTC rises, trader warns of altcoins
Analyst nicknamed Credible Crypto is warning of altcoins in the midst of a Bitcoin-led crypto market rally. The analyst says that altcoins will rise in the short term. However, he states that altcoins will drastically underperform BTC when BTC starts an impulsive rally. In this context, the analyst makes the following assessment:
I know it’s tempting to jump into altcoins right now thinking they’re going to catch up with BTC. In the short term, they’ll probably see some nice bounces. But I think these should only be short-term trades. I’ve been in this field for about six years and I’ve seen it many times. Whenever BTC starts a real impulsive move, altcoin/BTC pairs bleed more than most can imagine.
Analyst’s next target for Bitcoin: Above $32,000
According to Credible Crypto, altcoins’ poor performance compared to Bitcoin usually ends when BTC hits all-time highs. “Altcoins are looking good against the US dollar. Some are definitely ready. But BTC still outperforms most. This situation changes at some point. It is often broken by the rush of fresh money near all-time highs to what’s left. Until then, attention and liquidity will focus on Bitcoin, which is rapidly gaining value. That’s where you need to focus (for now),” he says.
Credible Crypto shares its predictions on Bitcoin’s forward price movements. The analyst says that he aims for BTC to rise above $32,000. The analyst makes the following statement:
Now that we’ve cleared the local supply zone (around $30,000), which I said we should be cautious about, I’m once again bullish on the lower time frame. If this is an impulsive move and the start of our accelerating move to all-time highs, we should hold the green zone (previous resistance) on any retest. Initial target is $32,000+.
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