At a solidarity event for Ukraine in Berlin, a man wears a sign on his back that reads: “Better to be cold and free than despised by Putin!”
(Photo: dpa)
The controversial sentence, with which Joe Biden expressed the widespread desire for a regime change in Moscow, was criticized by Western allies primarily because the US President could have increased the military risks of Putin’s war. But Biden’s words also speak of a new self-confidence in the West: The USA, Europe and their allies believe that they can put so much economic pressure on Putin with sanctions that in the end he may actually no longer be able to stay in office.
Whether this succeeds depends above all on whether the global effects of the sanctions can be managed in such a way that the unity of the West does not break. The consequences range from higher energy and food costs to job losses and the taking in of millions of refugees.
Two prerequisites are essential for this: Western economic warriors must consider the complexity, including the collateral damage, of their sanctions and be prepared to compensate for this with money and sacrifices. This means that the state must exert more influence on the economy than was necessary in peacetime.
“In this case, the sanctions could not (as in earlier times) fail because of their weakness, but because of their great and unpredictable strength,” warns the American historian Nicholas Mulder. Especially since the global economy is still weak after the pandemic and the disruptions it caused to global value chains.
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In contrast to previous sanctions against economically far less connected countries such as Iran, Venezuela or North Korea, Russia is also closely linked to the global economy through its energy and raw material connections. This is particularly crucial for Europe, where many economies, led by Germany, owe their prosperity to an open-border export model. A splitting of the global economy into hostile blocs would hit these nations all the harder.
China could plunge the West into an ordeal
The oath could come if China were to side with Putin even more clearly than before and circumvent Western sanctions. Are we then prepared to be as tough on Beijing as we were on Putin? Mulder points to the historical example of Fascist Italy’s invasion of Ethiopia in the 1930s. At that time, 52 countries successfully imposed punitive measures against Mussolini. When Hitler then became a far greater threat, many were no longer willing to follow up for domestic political reasons.
In addition, the West does not have the rest of the world on its side. Many former colonial countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia are critical of the US and European sanctions power play. Not least because they will have to bear the greatest collateral damage if energy and food prices go through the roof. If the West doesn’t want to jeopardize global sympathy for its tough course against Putin and if it doesn’t want to risk an inflow from the global South into the camp of China and Russia in the system competition, then it has to spend a lot of money here too to limit the effects of the sanctions to cushion.
Are we ready for more government and less market?
This is even more true at home, where the terrible pictures from Mariupol strengthen the willingness to help and suffer of the western population. Whether that will still be the case in six months, when images of war have become commonplace and the economic consequences will be much more noticeable, will depend not least on whether we are willing to temporarily suspend some of the rules of the market economy and on that Giving the state more leeway to distribute the wealth it has generated. Another tough test is foreseeable: What to do if Putin demands the lifting of sanctions for a shaky peace?
More: How China and Russia want to make the rest of the world dependent on their raw materials