Stockholm After the parliamentary elections in Finland, the Social Democrats of Prime Minister Sanna Marin (37) are no longer the strongest force in parliament. Despite gains, the party was only in third place after almost all votes were counted late on Sunday evening, behind the conservative National Coalition Party and the right-wing populist party The Finns. Ex-Finance Minister Petteri Orpo’s conservatives were on the verge of a narrow election victory and 48 of the 200 mandates. The Finns party had 46 mandates, Marin’s Social Democrats 43. Finland is therefore on the verge of a change of government.
“You know what? That was a great victory,” said the 53-year-old Orpo in front of cheering party supporters in Helsinki late in the evening. Talks on the formation of a new Finnish government would begin, led by his party.
Marin told supporters that the ruling party had made gains for the first time in a long time. “We did well,” she said. “Democracy has spoken.”
Finland had previously experienced a thrilling election night. A first trend immediately after the polling stations closed saw conservatives and social democrats almost on a par. The right-wing populists around their leader Riikka Purra followed at a smaller distance at the time, but caught up in the course of the evening. After counting more than 99 percent of the vote, the Conservatives were 20.8 percent ahead of the Finns Party with 20.1 and Marin’s Social Democrats with 19.9 percent. Voter turnout was 71.9 percent, roughly the same as in the last parliamentary election in 2019.
It is important which party is the strongest because traditionally in Finland its leader is the first to be given the task of forming a government. For a parliamentary majority, the winner of the election is likely to have to rely on another of the large parties and at least one of the medium-sized and smaller parties.
Marin continued to be popular
The charismatic Prime Minister Marin had given everything in the past few days, rushing from TV studio to TV studio, promoting her party on marketplaces in order to keep the chance of being able to lead the government in the future.
“She is clearly the most popular party leader, no one else even comes close to her approval ratings,” said politics professor Kimmo Grönlund from the Abo Academy in Turku. Her party also benefited from the popularity of the 37-year-old. “Without them, the Social Democrats would perhaps only get 16 percent of the votes instead of the current 20 percent,” says Grönlund.
In a poll conducted by the country’s largest daily newspaper, Helsingin Sanomat, 64 percent of respondents said Marin did a “very good” or “fairly good” job. Among the women surveyed, it was even 69 percent.
“It is extremely unusual in Finland for a head of government to have such high scores at the end of the legislative period,” said Grönlund. She benefited from always speaking her mind clearly, he said. “Her foreign policy comments were always unequivocal, and she was also good at pushing social democratic politics.”
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But the political scientist also sees their weaknesses. Your social media activities with many private pictures and videos were not well received by many, especially older voters. There was also room for improvement in the management of public finances. She also showed weakness in leadership within the coalition.
One problem for Marin is the poor approval ratings for her coalition partners. The previous coalition of the Social Democrats, the Center Party, the Greens, the Left Party and the Swedish-speaking minority party will not be able to continue.
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The Center Party had already announced in advance that it would not be available for a new government led by Marin. “The next government will look different,” political scientist Grönlund is certain.
A grand coalition of Marin’s Social Democrats and the conservative party is therefore just as conceivable as an alliance of conservatives and right-wing populists. “Two of the three strongest parties will be needed for the next governing coalition,” said politics professor Grönlund.
Marin had hoped that, in the opinion of most observers, voters would reward her for good crisis management. In fact, the youngest head of government in the world when she took office in 2019 had to deal with the fight against the corona pandemic almost immediately after the elections.
Since last year, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has dominated the agenda. Finland shares a 1300 km border with Russia. The geographic proximity to the aggressor led to a complete reversal of the country’s policy of neutrality, which it had pursued for decades. Under the leadership of Sanna Marin, the country initiated the NATO accession process.
A good year ago, Finnish membership in the military alliance was unthinkable after the approval of the last NATO country, Turkey, is a fact. Now all that is left is the ceremonial signing of the application for membership. Finland will become a member of the North Atlantic Defense Alliance as early as next month.
Marin has successfully sworn her compatriots to the task of non-alignment – after all, more than 80 percent of Finns are in favor of NATO membership. However, her successor signed the accession certificate.
Security policy played only a subordinate role in the election campaign
Even if it is surprising, security policy and in particular the desired NATO membership played only a subordinate role in the election campaign. The reason: all parties agree on this issue. Controversial issues, on the other hand, are not only tax, social and health policy, but above all the national debt, which at 144 billion euros is unusually high for the country.
While the conservatives under their chairman Petteri Orpo want to bring the public sector’s debt back into balance with tax breaks and simultaneous spending cuts, Marin’s social democrats stand for tax increases for higher earners.
“Marin’s economic and fiscal policy differs significantly from the conservatives’ program,” says political scientist Grönlund. However, he does not want to rule out a coalition between the two parties. “Nothing is impossible in Finland, we have seen in the past that in principle everyone can do with everyone.”
The right-wing populists are trumping
The great unknown of the election was Riikka Purra, leader of the right-wing populist party The Finns. She has sharply attacked the head of government in recent weeks after Marin described the party as “openly racist”.
Purra had previously opposed a more liberal immigration policy. She and her party are alone in this, because all other parties are in favor of visa facilitation because of major demographic problems and the associated bottlenecks on the labor market.
While Sanna Marin was initially able to score particularly well with younger voters thanks to her numerous social media activities, Purra has now followed in her footsteps. The 45-year-old posts her messages on Tiktok almost every day. With videos and simple language, she apparently hit the zeitgeist, especially among young voters.
From left: Riikka Purra, leader of the right-wing populist party The Finns, Petteri Orpo, Petteri Orpo, leader of the Conservatives and Sanna Marin of the Social Democrats.
(Photo: IMAGO/Lehtikuva)
What does Marin do now after a defeat? Political scientist Grönlund: “Regardless of whether it is enough to form a government or not, her position within the party should be strengthened.” But whether she is staying or is aiming for a post on the international stage, he cannot say. “The younger generation is quicker to leave a job, so I can’t give you an answer.” But he was certain of one thing: “There will be long and complicated negotiations to form a government.”
With agency material from the dpa.
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