Time is money. This also applies when – as in the case of arms and economic aid for Ukraine – three-digit billions are already at stake. At the Munich Security Conference, the West’s great solidarity in the alliance against Russian aggression and later also against Chinese ambitions for power was demonstrated. But then there must be no further snags in the concrete, i.e. in the actual delivery of weapons to Ukraine.
Only the USA and Great Britain had already flown ammunition and anti-tank weapons to Kiev at this point. As always, the EU countries held back. It could not be what was then considered the unthinkable: a Russian invasion of a sovereign European country.
A year later he is experiencing déjà vu again, said Selenski’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Munich. Whether it’s heavy artillery, modern air defense systems, battle tanks or other types of weapons – time and again the first thing said was: No, that won’t work. Until then we talked for months and finally delivered. That is now the case again – not least because the partners do not agree.
The unity of NATO and the West as a whole, which was evoked in Munich, sounds like a whistle in the woods. Whenever it becomes concrete, the ‧states involved find pretexts and excuses. Incidentally, this is not only the case with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Yes, he, too, is rather groping – and does not live up to his claim to leadership. The SPD chancellor has always taken a long time to bring himself to deliver the arms that Ukraine urgently needs. Now, however, it is others who are holding back the alliance to supply modern Leopard 2 tanks. Even the oh so bold Poles hesitate.
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The defense against the “attack on our common values and our common humanity” and the “belief in the fundamental role of freedom and the rule of law”, which US Vice President Kamala Harris invoked in Munich, is under acute scrutiny. Because so far, the only thing that can be said about Western unity is: too late, too hesitant, too timid.
Russia’s spring offensive
If Ukraine is to withstand the spring offensive announced by Russia, then very quickly it will not need single copies of modern main battle tanks, but many of them. It also lacks efficient air defense systems and long-range missiles that can attack Russian supply lines. Otherwise the Ukrainian army will have to retreat far. And then later, when the West realizes that defeat is imminent, to provide the necessary weapons. That means, however, that lost territories would then have to be recaptured with even greater losses.
Time is money – that will become clear in the coming weeks. If the West continues to hesitate, it will not only cost more lives in the end, but it will also be more expensive because more weapons will be needed to reconquer lost territory.
>> Read here: Read current developments in the Ukraine war in our news blog.
The war would be over sooner if Vladimir Putin’s soldiers were stopped when they tried to attack again. Negotiations about an end to the war would also be more likely and could be initiated more quickly. Advancing Russian soldiers further delays peace and increases casualties and weapon requirements.
Agree on the goal – only in practice there is a problem
Kiev, Brussels, Washington, Berlin and Warsaw all agree on the goal: Kremlin ruler Putin must suffer defeat. Just for the sake of deterrence, that is, to prevent – as Harris put it – “that other powers try to use brute force to change the world the way they want it”.
But no stringent policy follows this realization. It is also the fear of one’s own courage to even imagine a defeat of the nuclear power Russia. Beijing can smell this fear. But anyone who really wants to defend globally applicable human rights, the sovereignty and self-determination of states and their territorial integrity must now demonstrate determination in ‧Ukraine.
It’s also about making an impression on China and preventing the Chinese Communist Party from engaging in military adventures in Taiwan. Chancellor Olaf Scholz proclaimed a turning point – that was the important first step. The second, namely drawing the political conclusions from this, is still a long way off. But it is urgent, the turning point is in the time trap. And the unity and resoluteness of the West will be shown first of all in Ukraine.
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