President Boric must bring together the conservative and left-wing opponents of the new constitution.
(Photo: AP)
South America is experiencing an epochal change these weeks – and nobody is taking notice of it. What is happening now in Colombia, Chile and Brazil are crucial events for the future of the continent’s democracies. But Europe underestimates the magnitude of the upheavals.
In Chile, the new draft constitution failed in a referendum. The majority of Chileans are calling for a welfare state based on the European model – the economy fears government intervention above all.
Now President Gabriel Boric must bring the conservative and left-wing opponents of the new constitution to the table. Only then will the Andean country have a chance of continuing the economic boom that has been unprecedented in Latin America for three decades.
Presidential elections are in Brazil in October. The alternatives are anything but promising. If the right-wing populist Jair Bolsonaro wins re-election, he will continue to undermine democracy and possibly intensify it. As a precaution, Bolsonaro has already threatened to have the election cancelled.
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His role model: former US President Donald Trump. Left-wing ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads in the polls. He was in prison for corruption. The judgment was subsequently declared invalid for formal reasons. The next government must restore business confidence in what is by far the continent’s most important economy. The odds are anything but good.
Crucial for Europe
And finally there is Colombia, where Gustavo Petro recently took office for the first time as a left-wing president. He must bring peace to a country that is divided and suffering from excessive violence. If he succeeds, Colombia could finally exploit its great economic potential.
New constitution rejected in Chile
284 million people live in these three countries – around two-thirds of South Americans. There it will be decided whether South America will finally take the path of autocratic populism or whether it will be able to strengthen democratic structures.
This is particularly important for Europe. On the one hand, the EU needs raw materials and energy from South America more urgently than ever – from lithium to green hydrogen. With the loss of Ukraine as an agricultural supplier, we are aware of how important it is to have a stable supply of food from agriculture. South America can also offer that.
>> Read here: New times are dawning in Colombia
What few believe still applies: the region is still the continent outside of Western Europe and North America with the highest density of democracy in the world. About 80 percent of the 664 million people in Latin America live in democracies. Countries such as Uruguay, Costa Rica and Chile rank well ahead of the USA, Italy and Belgium in the Economist Intelligence Democracy Index.
It is in Europe’s deepest geoeconomic and geopolitical interests to keep it that way. The concept of “change through trade” may have failed in Russia and China, but there are still opportunities in South America.
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