Berlin When coach legend Pep Guardiola started as Bayern coach in 2013 and was asked about the transfer policy of the summer, he made a comment that should make it into the history books of the Bundesliga: “Thiago or nothing.” If Bayern were to sign any player, then the then young, highly talented Spanish midfielder from FC Barcelona.
For FDP leader Christian Lindner, after the general election on Sunday, this dictum applies slightly modified: finance minister or nothing. Lindner is in the comfortable position of playing the chancellor maker. Without his FDP – based on the polls shortly before the election date – neither a Jamaica alliance nor a traffic light coalition would come about.
But without the Ministry of Finance trophy, Lindner can hardly join a coalition. Especially not in a traffic light, even if the FDP should be behind the Greens and the eco party would actually have the first right of access to the Ministry of Finance.
From the FDP’s point of view, there are three reasons to insist on the finance ministry – and at the same time also for the fact that the finance minister is actually Christian Lindner in the end.
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1. Red-green is torture for Lindner
A traffic light coalition would be a torture for the FDP similar to joining a new grand coalition after the last election for the SPD. At the idea that the FPD of all people is playing the stirrup holder for red-green, the hairs on the back of the neck of many liberals stand on end.
A traffic light is therefore a high risk game for Linder. He would have to jump very far for a traffic light – and the sentence should only succeed without an accident if he can show his own people a presentable trophy.
And this trophy is solely and exclusively the Federal Ministry of Finance, after the Chancellery the second most powerful department. Lindner has said several times that he wants to become finance minister. Only if Olaf Scholz would grant Lindner the office plus a number of tax policy projects would he be ready to join a traffic light coalition.
Satisfying himself with the Ministry of Economic Affairs or the Digital Ministry would not only look as if Lindner had let Scholz trick him. It would be like that too.
2. The FDP would be powerless in a traffic light without the cash register
The SPD and the Greens are natural allies, as they have demonstrated again and again in this election campaign. Most recently, Olaf Scholz and Annalena Baerbock affirmed at the third triumph last Sunday how much they would like to rule together.
Lindner and his FDP would be something like the uninvited uncle at a birthday party that you just have to invite. In any case, Lindner runs the risk of being left on the sidelines after the coalition negotiations have ended.
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If both the Chancellery and the Ministry of Finance were in the hands of Red-Green, Lindner would have no lever whatsoever to seriously interfere with the two parties.
Scholz, for example, as the lord of finances in the grand coalition, has repeatedly managed to leave the Union in the dark. But at least the Union had the Chancellery. Lindner doesn’t have that. So he has to go to the Treasury himself.
And not to be underestimated: The FDP is already burned twice when it comes to tax policy in coalition negotiations and explorations.
In the 2009 election campaign, the FDP promised far-reaching tax cuts, but Guido Westerwelle preferred the foreign ministry to finance. CDU finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble then let the FDP starve to death on the long arm. Result: The FDP flew out of the Bundestag in 2013.
From the FDP’s point of view, this must never happen again. When, in 2017, the FDP’s demands to abolish solos were ignored in the Jamaica negotiations, Lindner pulled the rip cord in memory of the traumatic experience of 2013 – and got out of the negotiations.
3. Fiscal policy is the DNA of the FDP, climate policy that of the Greens
Tax policy is still the DNA of the FDP. For low taxes, the Liberals are mainly elected. The DNA of the Greens, on the other hand, is climate policy.
The Greens should first insist on the Ministry of Finance in order to drive up the price in coalition negotiations. But it would look somewhat strange if the Greens insisted on the finance ministry in order to forego a climate ministry when they say at the same time that combating climate change is the task of the century.
A counter-argument that is often used is: The Greens, as a likely stronger force than the FDP, have the first right of access to the Ministry of Finance. That is political practice. That’s basically true, but this practice is crumbling, as we saw in 2017.
At the time, the SPD had a bad result in the federal elections with 20.5 percent, but was in a good negotiating position after the burst of Jamaica.
In the coalition negotiations with the Union, the SPD won three important ministries – the finance, foreign and labor ministries – and thus more than the election results actually showed.
More: Unrest in the Union: Söder wants to get involved in Berlin on election evening