Tokyo Taiwan recently received a dubious title: The British magazine “The Economist” named democracy off China’s coast “the most dangerous place in the world”. Even the US military are now publicly warning that China could soon be serious about its threat to take over the small island by force of arms.
Beijing sees Taiwan as a breakaway province. Now, surprisingly, the dispute within Taiwan is also coming to a head as to who the country is giving itself to: China or the USA? It is a dispute that is also important for Germany.
The dispute was triggered by the old US ally, the most important opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT). On Saturday, she will elect a new chairman and thus her course for the 2024 presidential election.
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
The supposed formality has gained geopolitical importance. Because the very China-friendly outsider Chang Ya-chung successfully challenges the two rather US-friendly favorites, incumbent Johnny Chiang Chi-chen and ex-party leader Eric Chu Li-luan.
In fact, the 66-year-old political scientist Chang Ya-chung is seen as a proponent of a speedy reunification with China. He wants to break with the pursuit of an independent Taiwanese identity, the politics of the “green” camp around President Tsai Ing-wen.
Even if he shouldn’t win the election, the candidate has already postponed the KMT’s position, says Taiwanese political scientist Chen Po-nien: “Chang made the KMT election a loyalty check for one-China policy.” Chen Po -nien conducts research at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University in the United States.
The fading legacy of the KMT
The one-China policy is a legacy of the KMT, which founded the Republic of China in 1912 and fled to Taiwan after losing the civil war against the communists. The focus of the discussion is the so-called “1992 consensus”, according to which both sides see themselves as part of a China that they interpret differently.
This vague compromise has long been enough for China, but it is losing credibility in Taiwan. But now Chang’s opponents for the party chairmanship have become more vocal again. They promise to enable a dialogue with China again, which could ease the explosive situation.
But Chang goes further: He even calls for a kind of peace treaty between the two sides – and thus arrives at the KMT. According to opinion polls among party members, he is now the most popular candidate for the party chairmanship.
Politically, this course is risky, says political scientist Chen: “The KMT seems to be moving away from the political mainstream.” They could even split. Opinion polls by National Chengchi University show that the percentage of supporters of an association has decreased. In the past 20 years, the votes of the supporters have fallen from 20 to 7 percent. The proportion of those who only feel that they are Taiwanese and not also Chinese has risen from 41 to 63 percent during that time.
Taiwan’s internal dispute is fueling the great power conflict
But this minority is now hoping again that more people will be able to return to their arms for fear of war. That could exacerbate the strong political division in Taiwan – and with it the explosive tug of competition between China and the USA over the strategically and economically important island.
On board the plane were three US senators who discussed bilateral relations between the two countries and security issues with politicians in Taiwan. China views such visits with suspicion.
(Photo: imago images / ZUMA Wire)
The USA is on one side. The USA has recognized the People’s Republic of China as the sole representative of China since the 1970s. By 1972, the US had recognized the Taiwan-restricted Republic of China as the legitimate representative of all of China. This was preceded by a UN resolution in which the People’s Republic of China was recognized as the sole representative of China. Until then, the “Republic of China Taiwan” held the seat on the UN Security Council. She was then expelled from the United Nations.
Since the 1970s, the US has no longer recognized the Republic of China in Taiwan, but rather the People’s Republic as the sole representative of China. But Washington has made it clear that it is protecting Taiwan.
After the former US President Donald Trump increased the pressure on China, military tensions intensified. Trump and his successor Joe Biden are not only arming Taiwan militarily to deter China, but are also upgrading Taiwan’s diplomatic status and thereby strengthening the incumbent president’s green camp.
The new self-confidence showed this week. On Wednesday, Taiwan countered a request from China to be included in the transpacific free trade pact CPTPP – with its own application to join the trade agreement. The CPTPP was originally initiated by the US, but Trump canceled it.
On the other hand is Beijing. “China is serious about a violent takeover of Taiwan,” says Taiwanese military analyst Sun Shao-Cheng, who is currently teaching at The Citadel. Because the reunification of China is a “sacred duty” for the Communist Party.
The One China Policy is a legacy of the KMT, which founded the Republic of China in 1912.
(Photo: Reuters)
An official declaration of independence is considered Beijing’s breaking point. How great the tensions were depended on the respective governments in Taiwan. When the “blue” KMT camp was in power, relations thawed. The “greener” the government was and the more it emphasized its own Taiwan identity, the more pressure China exerted.
Since President Tsai won the presidential election for the first time in 2016, there has even been political silence on the Taiwan Strait. Chinese warplanes are now advancing into Taiwan’s flight identification zone on a daily basis. The military Chen therefore considers direct talks to be important in order to avoid at least a war.
Chips as life insurance
However, it is difficult to estimate how high the risk of a military conflict is. China has long been superior militarily. But the “economic special position” has given Taiwan a certain protection so far, says Max Zenglein, economist at the German China think tank Merics. Because the costs of an invasion are very high.
Taiwan is not just a major investor and technology supplier in China. Around a million islanders work on the mainland. In addition, China is even more dependent than most other countries on high-tech imports from Taiwan, says Zenglein: “Without components, chips and sensors from Taiwan, nothing works in China.”
A risk study by the Japan Research Institute underscores Beijing’s dilemma. In the event of an earthquake or war, “the world faces a major downturn,” warn Japanese economists. But according to their calculations, China’s direct damage from delivery failures would exceed that of the US by more than a quarter.
The Chinese government is painfully aware of this, and it is trying to become a chip superpower with large subsidies. But the electronics boom in the corona pandemic has increased Taiwan’s exports to China. The slow split into a Chinese and a Western supply chain has not changed that, says Zenglein. “Taiwan’s role as a hinge between supply chains is not directly at risk.”
However, China’s dependence partly explains the economic and military pressure: “China’s leadership wants to ensure that the country continues to have access to Taiwan’s chips,” says Zenglein. Regardless of the uncertain future of KMT, this means: the situation on the cross-strait and in Taiwan will remain explosive, and with it the risk to Europe’s economic security.
More: Europe’s anti-China strategy: this is how Brussels wants to oppose Beijing’s power