A Volkswagen employee assembles the side door of a VW ID.4.
(Photo: dpa)
Munich According to the Ifo Institute, the situation in the German auto industry continues to deteriorate. The indicator for the industry fell to minus one point in December after plus 7.9 points in November, as the Munich economic researchers announced on Wednesday. This darkened the situation for the fifth month in a row. “This further deterioration is driven by the manufacturers, not the suppliers,” said Ifo expert Oliver Falck. The position indicator for the manufacturers fell to 15.6 points. In November it was 36.5 points.
Above all, the lack of chips has apparently caused car sales in Germany to drop to an all-time low, reported a person familiar with the registration numbers to the Reuters news agency. In 2021, with 2.62 million vehicles, ten percent fewer new cars came onto the streets than in the previous year. In December, new registrations fell by 27 percent to around 228,000 vehicles. As a result, the car market did not shrink quite as rapidly as it did when it slumped by 32 percent in November.
The industry is now hoping for a trend reversal. December wasn’t as bad as it seems, the insider said. He pointed out that the number of new registrations a year ago was particularly high due to the lower value added tax.
The further development is difficult to predict due to the lack of parts and the delivery bottlenecks. According to unanimous estimates by experts, the demand for electric cars is likely to remain high because of government subsidies.
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
According to experts, there are no signs of rapid relaxation in the car market. In view of the high order backlog, however, more vehicles are likely to be delivered in 2022 than last year.
The suppliers’ situation remains poor
The VDIK importers association recently expected registrations to increase by 15 percent to around three million vehicles in 2022. According to earlier information, the Association of the German Automotive Industry (VDA) is not planning its annual press conference until mid-January and will then probably also announce a forecast.
The Ifo Institute announced that all manufacturers were still affected by supply bottlenecks for preliminary products. Business abroad seems to be stalling. The index for export expectations fell to 28.1 points from 51.1 points in November. “The expectations of the manufacturers are also no longer so rosy,” said Falck. Your business expectations fell from 42.7 to 18.2 points.
According to Ifo, the situation with the manufacturers is also being carried over directly to the suppliers. “The situation of the suppliers remains bad.” The indicator rose to minus 13.6 points from minus 21.7 in November, but remained clearly in negative territory. “The suppliers’ business expectations are more pessimistic than they have been for almost two years,” the institute said.
The corresponding index fell from minus 24.8 points to minus 28.6 points in December. “The latest announcements by car manufacturers to further expand their involvement in China are certainly depressing the mood of medium-sized suppliers in particular, who are heavily dependent on automobile production in Germany,” said Falck.
More: So that the combustion engine survives – Porsche is taking a risky bet on synthetic gasoline