The leading crypto Bitcoin (BTC) had a brutal year and is now down more than 70% from its peak. In this environment, is it possible for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 in 2023? Finance expert RJ Fulton says the halving event provides insight into Bitcoin’s price dynamics. The coveted six-digit mark isn’t all that unattainable, the expert says. But what does the data say?
Is it possible for the leading crypto to reach $100,000 in 2023?
Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high (ATH) of around $70,000 in November 2021. Afterward, many believed that BTC had enough momentum to reach the six-digit $100,000. However, cryptocoin.comAs you follow, Bitcoin fell as fast as it rose and kept falling.
Since hitting an all-time high in 2021, Bitcoin has dropped more than 70%. Drops of this magnitude are not uncommon when bear markets and crypto winters arrive. But historical data doesn’t show that once these price drops are over, the gains are returning as fast as they’ve stayed. There have only been three years in the history of Bitcoin that has not yielded at least a 48% return. Bitcoin needs to increase 490% to reach $100,000 in 2023. I guess that sounds impossible. However, it has earned more than 490% annual returns twice in Bitcoin history.
Call me skeptic, but I’m not sure it will hit that mark so quickly. To get a better idea of what Bitcoin has in store for 2023 and whether it will hit the $100,000 mark, we need to look at some patterns revolving around Bitcoin’s halving events.
Every four years, or every 210,000 blocks added to the Blockchain, Bitcoin goes through an event called a halving. When halvings come, the reward for Bitcoin miners is halved. Thus, the rate of new Bitcoin entering circulation decreases. There have been three halvings so far. These are: November 2012, July 2016 and May 2020. Initially, the miner reward was 50 Bitcoin. However, it has since dropped to just 6.25 Bitcoin. In May 2024, the reward will decrease to 3,125.
Halvings paint a clearer picture for Bitcoin
Surprisingly, a few things emerge when we plot the dates of past halvings on Bitcoin’s price chart. First, let me explain that these are averages and by no means reasons to try and time the market. Based on data from the last three halves, Bitcoin’s price usually bottoms out, on average, about 1.5 years after the next halving. Roughly 18 months before the next halving, data suggests we may have found a bottom.
In the past, Bitcoin has provided modest returns gradually from bottoming to the next halving. On average, Bitcoin reaches 60% of the previous ATH price when the next halving arrives. This puts the price of Bitcoin somewhere around $40,000 in May 2024. Still not a bad return. However, this means that Bitcoin has no chance of reaching $100,000 in 2023.
When is $100,000 for Bitcoin?
My belief is that if Bitcoin reaches $100,000, it won’t happen until 2025. The same data we evaluated shows that the ATH level is usually reached 1.5 years after the halving. Now, there is no clear pattern for how high Bitcoin will rise after the halving. However, I’ll bet it can go over six figures, 30% higher from the previous ATH level of around $70,000.
So for optimistic investors hoping to get back to the enthusiasm of 2021, if past trends continue, you’ll probably have to wait until 2025 before a new all-time high is touched. But that shouldn’t be seen as bad news. Rather, it should be seen as an opportunity. Because prices have dropped more than 70% and the risk of further losses is minimal. Thus, now might be a great time to invest in Bitcoin in preparation for long-term appreciation. Remember, Bitcoin rewards the patient and consistent investor.
The opinions and estimates in the article are those of the experts and are not investment advice. For this reason, we recommend that you do your own research before investing.
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