At the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 19-20, the FED presented a stronger economic forecast compared to its July projection and attributed this flexibility to strong consumer and business spending.
Meeting minutes revealed that many participants believed that with the policy rate at or near its peak, the focus should shift to the duration of restrictive rates rather than their potential rise. Many participants also noted that caution should be exercised in making additional tightening decisions due to data volatility and possible data revisions.
Participants agreed that below-trend growth and a softer labor market were necessary to restore economic balance. They also stated that the balance sheet shrinkage may continue for a while even after interest rate cuts begin.
Inflation was a major concern during the meeting and was considered unacceptably high by participants. They agreed that more evidence was needed to ensure price pressures were abating. Most participants continued to see upside risks to inflation.
While the minutes underlined the high level of uncertainty regarding the future course of the economy, many participants noted that downside risks to economic activity continued and there were upside risks to the unemployment rate.
Overall, participants at the Fed’s September policy meeting assessed that risks to achieving the FOMC’s goals have become more bilateral.
*This is not investment advice.
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