Former President da Silva is ahead of Bolsonaro in the polls.
(Photo: AP)
Salvador He will accept the election result – as long as everything goes right in the elections, President Jair Bolsonaro repeated to his supporters. “Anything other than my big win in the first ballot indicates that something is wrong in the Supreme Electoral Court.”
The president seems to be preparing his supporters for the impending defeat in his re-election. Because it does not look good for him: In the polls, he is not, but his opponent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva 14 percentage points ahead of him. According to the latest polls, an election victory for ex-president Lula seems possible in the first ballot.
In order to discredit a possible defeat, Bolsonaro has long attacked the electronic voting system. The electronic urns have been working flawlessly for more than two decades. Elections in Brazil have been entirely electronic since 2000. This prevented the previously usual manipulation of the ballot boxes.
On Bolsonaro’s instructions, the military are also stubbornly sowing doubts about the system. It is clear to Bolsonaro supporters that the system can be manipulated. Bolsonaro could therefore contest the election result on election day with reference to alleged irregularities.
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That would create an explosive situation: In three and a half years in power, Bolsonaro has created the conditions to be able to start unrest. Many of his followers, including those in the middle class, are armed today. Bolsonaro has systematically relaxed gun laws. The number of guns in the civilian population has doubled to two million during his reign.
Bolsonaro has built some of the federal police units into feared elite task forces. The highway patrol, for example – Policia Rodoviaria Federal – behaves like a presidential bodyguard.
The incumbent president has announced that he will accept the election result, provided that things go well.
(Photo: AP)
He enjoys great sympathy from the private security forces, whose number is about twice as large as that of the police. The violent militias are also firmly behind Bolsonaro: They dominate in Rio de Janeiro, but also increasingly in other metropolitan areas.
It could be easy for Bolsonaro to arouse this potential for violence – similar to what Trump did in the United States. In Brazil the willingness to take up arms is far higher than in the USA. Political violence has increased sharply under Bolsonaro, who himself was the victim of a knife attack that nearly killed him during the 2018 election campaign.
Bolsonaro supporters are increasingly attacking opposition politicians or journalists, sometimes with fatal outcomes. 45 politicians were murdered in the first half of 2022. In a poll, just two-thirds of the population said they were afraid of political violence. Many no longer dare to wear red clothes – out of concern that they could be mistaken for Lula supporters and attacked.
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In the event of Bolsonaro’s defeat, the decisive question would be which side the military is on: For an attack on the judiciary, the Congress, i.e. a classic coup, Bolsonaro would need the support of the state security forces.
The ex-president was accused of corruption in 2017 and convicted. He then spent some time in prison. Some of his followers speak of political imprisonment.
(Photo: AP)
The military occupy key positions in his cabinet, and 6,000 military personnel were given posts in the state apparatus under Bolsonaro. Nevertheless, Bolsonaro’s government is not a military government. At the moment it doesn’t look as if those in uniform want to actively support a putsch. What is missing today is a large alliance in society that stands behind an intervention by the armed forces, as was the case with the last coup in 1964.
However, if there were riots and clashes after the elections, the military would probably be on hand to maintain public order. And this is where the risk lies.
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The following scenario is conceivable: On election day, rumors surfaced on social media that things were not clean in some constituencies. As a result, armed Bolsonaro supporters took to the streets. In the general chaos, Bolsonaro then either declares the elections invalid or prevents the transfer of power by declaring a state of emergency.
The military would probably not oppose this creeping transformation into an authoritarian regime in the midst of the unrest. So far, Brazil’s democratic institutions are proving surprisingly strong. But ex-president Fernando Henrique Cardoso, himself the son of a general, warns: “The military is not preparing a coup – but it could be pressured into participating.”
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