“Both parties to the conflict in the Ukraine war continue to seek a decision on the battlefield.”
(Photo: Reuters)
Berlin The President of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), Bruno Kahl, expects a long-lasting war in Ukraine. “Both parties to the conflict in the Ukraine war continue to seek a decision on the battlefield. The combat operations will almost certainly continue next year,” said Kahl on Monday in Berlin at the annual public hearing of the presidents of the federal intelligence services before the parliamentary control committee.
The 13-strong body monitors the work of the federal intelligence services and usually meets in secret. Only once a year do the members question the heads of the authorities publicly.
Kahl said that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin saw a “main threat” in what he saw as the “aggressive” spread of the Western social model of freedom and democracy, since this model “existentially” endangered his own rule.
“Putin is not primarily concerned with the territory of Ukraine, which he is currently waging a brutal war of annihilation over,” said the BND boss. “It’s about a declaration of war against the entire western, free, democratic world.”
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Kahl went on to explain that Putin probably came to the conclusion “that the West, on the basis of negotiations, will neither meet the Russian security interests it claims and demand nor the desire to be perceived as a superpower”. Putin is obviously of the opinion that the military incursion in Ukraine can correct these deficits.
The BND chief estimates that Putin’s actions are probably the result of a cost-benefit calculation. “He is ready now to accept the military, economic and political costs of a war of aggression against Ukraine because, in the event of inaction, he sees the future costs for Russia as significantly higher, which would result from Ukraine’s further rapprochement with the West and that NATO would come into existence.”
The Office for the Protection of the Constitution fears “significant effects” on the domestic security situation
It is obvious to Kahl that a negotiated solution is not the Kremlin’s intention. “The necessary willingness to compromise is not recognizable,” said the secret service agent. If at all, a negotiated solution would have to “essentially meet Russian security interests” anyway.
And these should not only be taken militarily, said Kahl. “Putin’s demands are inextricably linked to the West’s consideration of Russian security interests.”
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Kahl was not surprised by Russia’s actions. “What the BND has been reporting for years has happened,” he said. “Putin will continue to use violence to achieve his political goals, as he has done before in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Crimea and Donbas.”
The head of the German domestic secret service, Thomas Haldenwang, assesses the situation in a similar way: A smoldering system rivalry has now turned into a “dangerous fight” that also has “significant effects” on the domestic security situation. “A turning point has actually occurred,” said Haldenwang. “As a game changer, this unprecedented aggression will indefinitely dominate all security-related policy areas.”
The head of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution spoke of an “objective intensification” of the threat situation, the “inhibition threshold for intelligence operations” would continue to decrease. This opened up “new scenarios that we anticipate and implement in targeted action”. The Russian services were dealt “a serious blow” when 40 Russian intelligence officers were expelled from Germany at the beginning of April.
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