BND expects a long war

Next to the USA, Russia has the most nuclear warheads in the world. These can roughly be divided into two categories: in addition to long-range weapons that can be quickly deployed for deterrence, Moscow has so-called tactical nuclear weapons. These are intended for the destruction of troops or metropolitan areas and have a lower explosive power.

The BND’s observation is important in that Russia has stored its tactical nuclear weapons. Before deployment, they would be prepared by specially trained units and transferred to the operational area. According to information from intelligence circles, these central storage sites are constantly monitored by satellites. Any movement on the ground should therefore be recognizable, it said.

NATO maneuvers with nuclear weapons started

The preparations also include equipping the Russian troops in Ukraine with NBC equipment. This is for protection if the blast is planned near the front lines, said a military man with knowledge of Russian scheduling. All in all, these preparations would take several days. Apparently it didn’t come to that, as BND President Kahl indirectly expressed it at the hearing in Berlin.

The United States and European countries have emphatically warned Putin against using nuclear weapons. Former US General David Petraeus has outlined a NATO response in the event that it would entail the annihilation of Russian forces in Ukraine and the Black Sea with conventional weapons. Although Petraeus is no longer an active soldier, he may have coordinated his words closely with the US Department of Defense, as military officials emphasize.

The NATO military alliance has put additional pressure on Russia with the “Steadfast Noon” maneuver, which started on Monday. This takes place annually, and NATO also emphasized that it was not a reaction to Russia’s war of aggression. During the maneuver, however, the soldiers train how nuclear weapons are transported from the underground arsenals to the combat aircraft and assembled there. The approximately 60 aircraft involved then take off without their nuclear weapons.

NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said, “This exercise helps ensure the Alliance’s nuclear deterrent remains secure and efficient.”

BND expects a long war in Ukraine

Meanwhile, the BND chief does not anticipate a timely relaxation. “Both parties to the conflict in the Ukraine war continue to seek a decision on the battlefield. The fighting will almost certainly continue next year,” said Kahl during the hearing of the parliamentary control committee. The 13-strong body monitors the work of the federal intelligence services and usually meets in secret. Only once a year do the members question the heads of the authorities publicly.

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Kahl said that Putin sees a “main threat” in the “aggressive” spread of the Western social model of freedom and democracy, since this model “existentially” endangers his own rule. “Putin is not primarily concerned with the territory of Ukraine, which he is currently waging a brutal war of annihilation over,” said the BND boss. “It’s about a declaration of war against the entire western, free, democratic world.”

Kahl went on to explain that Putin probably came to the conclusion “that the West, on the basis of negotiations, will neither meet the Russian security interests it claims and demand nor the desire to be perceived as a superpower”. Putin is obviously of the opinion that the military incursion in Ukraine can correct these deficits.

The BND chief estimates that Putin’s actions are probably the result of a cost-benefit calculation. “He is ready now to accept the military, economic and political costs of a war of aggression against Ukraine because, in the event of inaction, he sees the future costs for Russia as significantly higher, which would result from Ukraine’s further rapprochement with the West and that NATO would come into existence.”

The Office for the Protection of the Constitution fears “significant effects” on the German security situation

It is obvious to Kahl that a negotiated solution is not the Kremlin’s intention. “The necessary willingness to compromise is not recognizable,” said the secret service agent. If at all, a negotiated solution would have to “essentially meet Russian security interests” anyway. And they shouldn’t just be caught militarily, says Kahl. “Putin’s demands are inextricably linked to the West’s consideration of Russian security interests.”

Kahl was not surprised by Russia’s actions. “What the BND has been reporting for years has happened,” he said. “Putin will continue to use violence to achieve his political goals, as he has done before in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Crimea and Donbass.”

The head of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Thomas Haldenwang, assesses the situation in a similar way: A smoldering system rivalry has now become a “dangerous fight” that also has “significant effects” on the domestic security situation. “A turning point has actually occurred,” said Haldenwang. “As a game changer, this unprecedented aggression will indefinitely dominate all security-related policy areas.”

The head of the German domestic intelligence service spoke of an “objective intensification” of the threat situation, and the “inhibition threshold for intelligence operations” would continue to fall. This opened up “new scenarios that we anticipate and implement in targeted action”. The Russian services were dealt “a serious blow” when 40 Russian intelligence officers were expelled from Germany at the beginning of April.

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