Bitcoin price currently stands at $27,100. This reflects a significant 60% decline compared to the all-time high of $69,000 in 2021. With the next bull market on the horizon, questions have arisen surrounding Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. Many predictions remain speculative. But one analyst formulated a data-driven model to provide insight into potential tops and bottoms in Bitcoin’s price over time.
Bitcoin price through cycles: A historical perspective
Bitcoin BTC has experienced significant growth since its inception. It also rewarded early long-term investors with significant returns. This price increase can be observed when measuring Bitcoin’s price from lows to highs and between the tops of successive bull markets.
For example, in 2011, Bitcoin BTC reached a peak of $33. This was followed by a peak of $1,240 in 2013. Accordingly, this marked a staggering 3,800% increase between peaks. The next peaks were $20,000 and $69,000 in 2017 and 2021, respectively. In other words, it represented increases of 1,600% and 350%. Similar growth patterns emerge when examining the lows of various cycles.
Leverage logarithmic regression
Interestingly, the relative growth between cycles has decreased over time. Accordingly, this situation causes the market value of Bitcoin BTC to increase. It can also be attributed to the fact that it needs more significant capital inflows to affect its price. This declining growth is consistent with a mathematical model known as logarithmic regression.
A competent analyst applied logarithmic regression curves to the Bitcoin chart. Accordingly, he used time as the sole input to predict potential tops and bottoms. These models provide a simple way to predict market trends and make informed decisions in the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies. It also offers valuable information to investors.
Bitcoin price projections
The peaks and valleys of Bitcoin’s price cycles typically occur approximately every four years. It also enables predictions for future Bitcoin prices based on the logarithmic regression model. In this case, we encounter the following models:
- 2025-2026: The model indicates that Bitcoin price could peak in the $190,000-$200,000 range in the third or fourth quarter of 2025. He also predicts it will bottom out around $70,000 the following year.
- 2029-2030: During this period, the price of Bitcoin may reach a peak between $420,000 and $440,000. It could also bottom out at around $230,000 next year.
- 2033-2034: The model predicts a peak between $750,000 and $800,000. He also predicts a bottom around $700,000 the following year.
However, as we look towards the late 2030s, the model begins to face limitations as projected peaks begin to fall below projected lows. This phenomenon points to a stabilization in Bitcoin’s price after its peak of $750,000-$800,000.
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