Just over a month ago, the meeting was seen as an opportunity to settle controversial issues such as the joint investment agreement that the European Parliament had put on hold. Since Moscow has been at war in Ukraine, the summit has been seen as an opportunity to warn China against actively supporting Russia and to threaten Beijing with economic consequences if it does not – which the People’s Republic should not take lightly because its economic relations with the USA are more than fragile.
But whose side is Beijing on in this war? First, the political leadership attempted a neutrality balancing act. As far as we know today, China has not undermined Western sanctions and has also criticized the violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. But the silence of the political leadership on the war crimes in Ukraine benefits the Russian aggressor.
In the past 48 hours, Beijing has been moving more and more clearly towards the wrong side of history. Foreign Minister Wang Yi not only promised his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to expand bilateral relations. Wang also stressed that Moscow and Beijing would take their relationship “to a new level in a new era.”
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
He even thanked Lavrov for Moscow “trying to prevent a large-scale humanitarian crisis” in Ukraine, while the bombing of civilian targets continued and more people died in the occupied port city of Mariupol.
The EU imposed sanctions on China
Cynicism cannot be more bitter. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Charles Michel will probably not hear a critical word about the Russian President from Xi this Friday – although Putin has reasonable grounds to suspect that he is responsible for war crimes.
Just over a year ago, the world looked different. At the end of 2020, after the last EU-China summit, Europeans and Chinese successfully concluded negotiations on a trade and investment agreement. Previously, relations between Europe and the United States had deteriorated significantly for four years under President Donald Trump’s administration. But in the months that followed, the conflicts increased, although the EU and China are still economically dependent on each other: the bilateral trade volume last year was 828 billion US dollars.
However, in early 2021, the EU imposed sanctions on China for human rights violations against the Uyghurs. Beijing responded with punitive measures against Western company representatives, scientists and MEPs who had taken a critical look at Chinese politics.
The EU enacted new legislation to protect itself from Chinese economic pressures and filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization over Beijing’s retaliation against Lithuania for allowing Taiwan to open a diplomatic representation in Vilnius in 2021. Beijing then issued an import ban on Lithuanian products.
The moment of truth is painful for Europeans
China’s economic importance should not cloud our view of what is happening in the People’s Republic: totalitarian information control, brutal repression of critics, genocide of the Uyghurs and the cementing of political power in the hands of Xi, the leader for life.
Geopolitically, China is pursuing a tough policy of interest, centered on the competition with the USA for the role of the leading world power and the struggle between liberal democracies and authoritarian regimes. Beijing favors a global expansion policy and, like Moscow, thinks in terms of spheres of influence.
For years, China has also been working on shaping global governance structures according to its ideas and strengthening autocratic regimes worldwide. Like Russia, it criticizes the world order based on Western liberal principles. On February 4, Putin and Xi jointly reframed them and dubbed themselves the “better democracies.”
For the EU, and especially for Germany, the moment of truth is painful. Europe needs China, for example for the global climate protection agenda, and many entrepreneurs value the Chinese as reliable cooperation partners. Anyone who has access to the Chinese market can look forward to high profits for a few more years, despite growing competition in some sectors. China is attractive as a business and research location for many reasons. Therefore, from a business point of view, it was rational to focus on close ties with China.
China also wants to weaken Europe’s democracies
However, China is increasingly becoming a systemic competitor that also wants to weaken democracies in Europe and positions itself as an ally of a warmonger on the European continent. China is therefore also a security problem for Europe. In this situation, the EU must represent its interests clearly. The EU leadership should warn China not to support Russia in circumventing European sanctions or by supplying arms.
Secondary sanctions would be expensive for Europe, but possible. It should call on China to press Moscow for humanitarian corridors and a ceasefire – and to condemn the crimes against humanity. However, President Xi cannot act as a mediator. A totalitarian ruler who conducts military exercises with Russia and opposes the Western order will not mediate in the interests of states that see Ukraine as a sovereign country with the right to territorial integrity and strategic self-determination , which wants to further consolidate its democracy, which has been functioning for years.
The real work on Europe’s strength must take place at home. In view of the new world situation, the primary goal must be to strengthen one’s own competitiveness and security of supply. The parallels between Europe’s relationship with China and Russia are clear: the strategic dependencies – in one case on exports, in the other on energy imports – are so great that foreign policy room for maneuver has been lost and can only be bought back at great expense.
The governments of the European Union, and above all Germany with its great dependence on exports, should have invested in European alternatives and diversification long ago in order to prepare for conflicts.
Russia’s war against Ukraine, the threats it has uttered against other states, and China’s close ranks with Putin have redrawn the lines. In the first months of 2022 we are witnessing a turning point – not only in relations with Russia, but also with China, which Europe must counter by investing in its own strength.
The author: Prof. Daniela Schwarzer heads the Open Society Foundations in Europe and Eurasia. Her latest book “Final Call – How Europe can hold its own between China and the USA” has been published by Campus Verlag.
More: Beijing gambled in the case of Lithuania