Berlin The mood was clear. For a while, the more than 300 CDU district chairmen in the great hall of the Berlin hotel “Central District” have been debating how the reorganization of the party leadership should work. Then CDU leader Armin Laschet spoke up, from his point of view everything had been said and the time for the decision had come.
Laschet summarized the tenor of the requests to speak: There should be a questioning of the CDU members on the question of who will succeed him as party chairman. And then, if possible in December, a federal party conference. Laschet wanted to know who was in favor. Almost all hands went up. Votes against? Just a handful.
The top management level will follow the vote of the district delegate conference. It is therefore clear that the decisive defeat of the Union in the Bundestag election is followed by an equally decisive reaction: For the first time in the history of the CDU, the 400,000 members are allowed to decide who will be the new party leader. “Today we are opening a new chapter, a new chapter in membership participation,” said Secretary General Ziemiak.
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The following applies to the members’ vote: procedural questions are questions of power
So much grassroots democracy is not only new to the CDU, it is also a delicate undertaking. There are legal hurdles and the schedule is extremely tight. One thing is clear: the members can vote, but a party congress has to confirm the result, according to the legal situation.
What also makes the decision of the district chairperson explosive: procedural questions are always also questions of power. The possible applicants for the chairmanship are assigned different chances in a member survey. Officially, no applicant has yet ventured out of cover.
Five CDU politicians are traded as possible candidates: the former Union parliamentary group leader Friedrich Merz, the executive health minister Jens Spahn, the foreign policy specialist Norbert Röttgen, the incumbent chairman of the Union parliamentary group Ralph Brinkhaus and the head of the economic wing, Carsten Linnemann.
Preliminary decision for Friedrich Merz?
The member survey is considered by some in the CDU as a preliminary decision for Merz. The former Union faction leader is popular at the grassroots level, and in a member survey he could have a good chance – at least better than in a fight vote at a party congress. Here he has already lost twice, first to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, then to Laschet. That is why Merz has announced that he will not go into an open battle vote at a party congress a third time.
With Spahn, on the other hand, it is the other way round: if there was an open vote at a party congress, he would probably have better chances than a basic decision. The executive health minister is said to have campaigned against a member survey in the run-up to the conference. Vain.
The member survey is considered by some in the CDU as a preliminary decision for Merz.
(Photo: imago images / Political-Moments)
Not every district chairman is convinced of the decision, but the pressure from the grassroots was too great. In the past few days they had consulted on site, and the mood there was already clear. Many a district chief was sent to Berlin by his people with a statement for each member survey, which he was supposed to read out.
The displeasure at the base is too great
The displeasure at the grassroots level is huge after the election debacle. Three times it was ignored, three times the result was devastating: First, the election of Kramp-Karrenbauer as CDU chairwoman, which dropped out after a year. Then the decision for Laschet as the successor to the party leadership and finally as a candidate for chancellor. The CDU federal executive had spoken out in favor of Laschet, although the basis was clearly for CSU boss Markus Söder, who was given better chances.
From all this now follows the claim of the members to finally be allowed to have a say. And in the party leadership, even those who have always rejected it in the past come to terms with a basic decision.
Their hope: A new chairman, strengthened by a member survey, will succeed in what Kramp-Karrenbauer and Laschet had failed to do: to unite the party. In addition, there is also the task of normalizing the relationship with the CSU and its boss Markus Söder.
For many CDU functionaries, the member survey is more of a desperate attempt at rescue, because no other way out of the current situation can be seen. Some do not really feel comfortable with it. This is also due to the complicated procedure that now begins with the assignment of the district chairperson’s conference.
Time is running out for a party conference in December
In the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus you have to work out a procedural proposal for the federal board by Tuesday. The desire to confirm the chairman at a party congress shortly before Christmas in December is sporty.
But the party wants to reposition itself as quickly as possible in order to find its way into the opposition role. This is particularly important to the Prime Ministers of North Rhine-Westphalia, Schleswig-Holstein and Saarland, who will have to pass state elections in the coming year.
If the federal board decides on the member survey on Tuesday, then there will be one to two weeks afterwards in which potential candidates submit their application. Presumably, as in the previous decisions on the chairmanship, they will have to be proposed again by a party organization entitled to apply, such as a district association.
The party wants to reposition itself as quickly as possible in order to find its way into the opposition role.
(Photo: dpa)
As soon as the candidate field has been clarified, the applicants will introduce themselves to the base. There was sympathy among the district chairpersons for holding regional conferences again, at which the candidates answer questions from members. Then you have to choose. Whether online, by letter or on site in district offices is still unclear. If there are more than two candidates, there would also be a runoff election.
The potential candidates have taken cover
It is unclear whether potential candidates will announce their applications on Tuesday, when the federal executive board has determined the procedure. The background is still being explored. Merz’s chances have increased with the decision to vote for members. Possible competitors such as Spahn, Röttgen or Linnemann could try to improve their starting position by competing with a team that appeals to the breadth of the party.
For the time being, everyone stays under cover. There is a great deal of nervousness, according to the party. The mood is difficult to assess. The decision to become Vice President of the Bundestag is a warning to those who may be interested.
The Union’s First Parliamentary Managing Director, Michael Grosse-Brömer, was just as interested in the post as Annette Widmann-Mauz, currently still integration officer in the Chancellery at Angela Merkel. But then it was said from the parliamentary group that they did not want anyone from the previous leadership or the federal government. And so the choice fell surprisingly on the previously largely unknown CDU MP Yvonne Magwas.
Many in the party see this as proof of how great the desire is for a real fresh start with new faces at the top – and how unpredictable the situation is for potential candidates.
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