With the disappearance of political uncertainty after the presidential elections, investment institutions are changing the shares in their model portfolios, which they expect to rise. The first move came from Alnus Investment.
While adding THYAO, EKGYO, OYAKC and KOZAL shares to its model portfolio, Alnus Investment announced that it has removed TUPRS, TRGYO, GENIL and YYLGD shares from its portfolio.
In the strategy note of Alnus regarding the model portfolio change, the following statements were made:
We start by remembering the information that as a result of the election process completed, the current President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will continue his duty with his re-election, and that he also won the majority in the parliament in the first round. In this sense, it is understood that the new process will proceed with full authority, under the policy and control of Erdogan and the public alliance wing.
As in the parliament, the dominance of the people’s alliance in the presidency and the end of uncertainty with a result suggesting stability may be welcomed by the markets, but the main issue that will determine the direction of the markets will be how the new cabinet and economic policy will be shaped.
President Erdoğan: “We are designing a production economy with an international reputation, focused on financial management, investment and employment.” In this context, it may be perceived by the markets as a possible change in economic management and policies, which we have been saying for weeks and now see as inevitable. Developments and statements in this direction will be the main agenda item in the coming days of the market.
In the short term, a relatively positive image may occur in the shares of companies that are perceived as public and close to the public.
We are of the opinion that the leading data, especially the transportation/aviation index, can be followed in a healthy way, and despite the strong financial results in the first quarter, the company shares that remained behind due to the uncertainties experienced in the country and that had positive expectations in the second quarter will also be at the forefront in this process.
Alnus Investment
Looking at the big picture, we believe that the stock market will continue to be the most attractive investment tool for the medium-long term, provided that the globally accepted economic policies are returned.
However, as long as the new economy management and current policies are reintroduced, foreign currency indexed products will continue to find a place in portfolios in terms of ensuring the risk-return balance.
Borsa Istanbul increased the share of Istanbul from 50 percent to 65 percent.
It should be noted that in addition to all these risks, medium-long-term opportunities have started to emerge on the BIST front, which is trading with historically low multipliers at this point. In this context, we increase the weight of BIST stock ratio, which we previously reduced from 90% to 50% in our Asset Distribution Model, to 65% (we also decrease our weights in other instruments by 5% each). However, in the selection of shares
We also underline once again that we are in a period where we need to be more careful. In parallel with this, for investors who include or intend to include stocks in their portfolios, companies that have the correct cash flow and net working capital management will be one step ahead in this challenging process. However, companies with excess cash, no debt or low debt, no exchange rate risk, and foreign currency income should also be preferred in the market rate environment that reaches 40%, unlike the policy rate.
In addition to this change in Asset Distribution, we consider it appropriate to make some tactical changes in our Model Portfolio, taking into account the new process and possible changes in economic policies. We include THYAO, EKGYO, OYAKC and KOZAL shares in our Portfolio, which have been relatively behind the index by 1.07% since the end of March, instead of TUPRS, TRGYO, GENIL and YYLGD shares, which we think will better reflect the current process and have a high potential to stand out due to seasonality.
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