Matt Hougan, CEO of leading crypto index fund manager Bitwise, said there will be a spot market in the mid-term period after launch. Bitcoin He thinks that $50 billion could flow into the (BTC) exchange traded fund (ETF).
Matt Houganthinks the spot BTC ETF could attract around $5 billion in investment in its first year alone.
The record in the ETF world is around $5 billion, excluding ETFs that bring their own assets. I think it’s $4 or $5 billion. I think something like that is completely reasonable in first year.
However, our general estimate is an investment of 50 billion dollars in the first five years. I also agree with this thought. Of course, this is not a guarantee. It can go either way. We don’t have any visibility into the details, but if you look at other markets, Bitcoin ETFs are about 1% of the market when they mature.
NEWS CONTINUES BELOWThe US ETF market is $7 trillion. So if you take 1% of that, you have $70 billion. There is already $20 billion in GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust). So, 50 billion dollars remain. This is the math that got you to this point. Could there be more? Of course it can. Can the price rise and double this? Of course. But that’s a lot of money. Net new demand at a time when supply is decreasing due to halving, and that’s a pretty exciting combination.
Hougan thinks a spot Bitcoin ETF would likely boost the BTC price by increasing demand, but exactly how much of an impact it could have is unpredictable.
Koinfinans.com As we reported, ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, expects an increase of at least 15 times. Hougan stated that he did not agree with this idea, but that it was also a guessing approach. According to Hougan, the asset does not have a linear curve on supply-demand elasticity, so it would be wrong to make a clear approach.
But I think if investors take a step back and think about the next three years of Bitcoin, you can keep it relatively simple as there is a new source of demand in the ETF wrapper and a decrease in supply from Bitcoin halving.
Of course, no market is that simple, anything can happen and there are huge risks involved, but this is an overarching framework for thinking about Bitcoin for the next few years.