Gold prices fell on Monday as dollar and bond yields rose. Investors are looking at a week when US inflation data will be released. In addition, a busy week with policy meetings of central banks awaits us all. So, which levels stand out for gold prices in such an environment? Let’s look at our article.
What about gold prices?
Gold prices fell 0.4% to $1,953.77 an ounce. U.S. gold futures were down 0.4% to $1,969.70 at $1,969.70. The dollar index rose 0.2%, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. On the other hand, the rise in US Treasury yields made zero-yield bullion less attractive. “Entering this week with gold is almost like tossing a coin,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. says. The US consumer price index for May will be announced on Tuesday at 20:30. The producer price index will also be announced on Wednesday morning before the Fed’s interest rate decision. Haberkorn, “The cessation of rate hikes will push gold quite high despite a hawkish (Fed) statement.” says. According to CME’s Fedwatch tool, markets are pricing in a 76% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, and a 71% probability that it will raise rates in July. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decisions on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
“Gold prices are traded on the assumption that US interest rates will stay where they are and any increase will push the precious metal down towards $1,900 per ounce,” Kinesis Money analyst Rupert Rowling wrote in a note. says. Silver fell 1.3% to $23.95 an ounce, while platinum fell 1.92% to a two-month low at $989.67. Palladium, used in emission control devices in cars, rose 1.4% to $1,342.27 after hitting its lowest level since May 2019 on Friday. Metals Focus analyst Jacob Smith said: “Paladium is likely to rise above $1,500 in the fourth quarter of this year, thanks to the recovery in automotive production. However, this situation is currently under pressure due to the destocking of automakers.” says.
Commerzbank economists expect rise
Economists at Commerzbank also make important assessments for the gold price. Analysts think that gold will gain value again in the coming months. According to analysts, the Fed will not raise interest rates any further. Because they do not want to take the risk of raising interest rates too much in light of the recent tightening in credit conditions. Analysts think that the gold price will rise even higher in the coming months.
Analysts say that the rate hikes made so far will show their effect. They also emphasize that the momentum in the US economy will weaken significantly in the second half of the year. On the other hand, compared to the market, they expect the first rate cuts to be made only slightly later, precisely at the beginning of 2024. Accordingly, this situation will become evident at the end of the year. In such a case, the gold price will also rise above $ 2,000, according to analysts. It will even reach a new record level next year. cryptocoin.com Analysts express the levels they expect as follows.
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