Why the Turkish election campaign could also affect Europe

While Europe is currently taking in hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees, the mood in Turkey against the refugees from Syria has shifted. More and more Turks see the refugees in their own country as a great burden. Thousands of videos have been shared on social media in which alleged crimes by Syrian refugees can be seen. What is real about it often remains unclear. The high inflation in Turkey, now at 70 percent per year, is also undermining public acceptance of the refugees because it lowers the standard of living for many people in the country.

A year before the presidential elections in June 2023, the opposition is taking advantage of the mood and is becoming increasingly openly xenophobic. Ümit Özdag from the small opposition party Zafer Partisi, who claims to have helped finance the short film “Stille Plage”, appeared in early May with dozens of TV reporters in tow in front of the Ministry of the Interior, which is formally responsible for taking in and caring for the refugees. When he was not let in, he threatened Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu in front of the cameras: “We will meet one day. Then there won’t be any police next to him and neither will there be next to me… let’s see what happens then.”

Criticism of the refugee agreement with the EU is growing

The growing, politically fueled xenophobia in Turkey could also become a problem for the EU. The EU is ignoring the growing resentment in Turkey about the refugees, says Hanne Beirens, head of the think tank Migration Policy Institute Europe. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to defend the refugee pact with the EU. In her view, the EU should take the instability in Turkey more seriously. The UN refugee agency UNHCR also recently stated that the high number of refugees means “an increasing burden on resources and infrastructure in Turkey”.

Turkish opposition politicians have long included the EU-Turkey refugee pact in the discussion: “The government has turned the country into a single refugee camp for money,” a newspaper quoted the head of the opposition Turkish workers’ party TIP, Erkan Bas, as criticizing the refugee agreement from 2016.

>>Read here: Are almost 20 years Erdogan enough? How the opposition wants to overthrow the president

More and more opposition parties want to deport the approximately four million displaced people – to Syria or Europe. The head of Erdogan’s coalition partner MHP, Devlet Bahceli, said on Tuesday: “As soon as there is peace in Syria, the Syrians must go back.” Opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the republican CHP said earlier this year: “We will send everyone back as soon as we come to power come.”

Erdogan, who is still considered the strongest supporter of the four million “guests”, as the Syrians are officially called in the country, is defending his policy. “We won’t throw anyone out,” he promises. But he has been losing approval in the country for months.

As soon as there is peace in Syria, the Syrians have to go back. Devlet Bahceli, leader of the coalition party MHP

Erdogan recently announced that he would allow one million refugees in the country to “voluntarily return”. However, experts and European diplomats know that this is not so easy to do. So does Nikolaus Meyer-Landrut, head of the EU delegation in the Turkish capital Ankara. “The political framework for a large-scale return to Syria is currently not in place,” he says. “The situation in Syria is getting worse, not better.” Among other things, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is making the situation in Syria worse. Many people there are dependent on grain deliveries from Ukraine.

Brussels is negotiating with Ankara about another billion payment

Meyer-Landrut believes that Turkey must negotiate repatriation with the UNHCR refugee agency. He thinks it is unlikely that a large number of refugees will be able to return to Syria before the elections.

Meanwhile, the expectation that the acceptance of five million Ukrainian refugees in the EU could also lead to greater openness towards refugees from other countries has not yet been fulfilled. On the contrary: According to Beirens, head of the Migration Policy Institute Europe think tank, several EU countries have paused their resettlement programs for Syrian refugees.

Brussels and Ankara are currently negotiating fresh financial support. Up to three billion euros are planned for two years. This time, however, the conversations are taking place quietly in the background. According to information from the Handelsblatt, an EU delegation will travel to Ankara in June to clarify the issue.

The new money should primarily be used to finance programs to finance basic security for refugees in Turkey and to enable school education and medical care, explains EU Ambassador Meyer-Landrut. He rejects financial support for a repatriation from Turkey to Syria. “This is an issue that Turkey should discuss with the United Nations, not with the EU.”

The think tank head Beirens believes that EU aid should benefit the local population so that resentment against the refugees is not intensified. For example, infrastructure such as hospitals and schools could be built from which everyone would benefit. Measures to locate jobs would also be helpful.

EU Ambassador Meyer-Landrut does not believe in new streams of refugees from Turkey towards Europe. But he also sees the growing pressure. “The economic situation and polarization will ensure that the issue will be high on the agenda of many parties until next year’s elections.”

According to a study by the Turkish migration researcher Murat Erdogan, most Syrian refugees are young and have little connection to their old homeland. And so only a small part really wanted to go back. “A large proportion of Syrians in Turkey see their prospects here in the country,” Meyer-Landrut shared the results.

More: Creator of the Turkey agreement: “The EU must not engage in a competition of brutality”