Why the NRW election is becoming an endurance test for Friedrich Merz

No federal state has as many people as NRW. Your votes are the seismograph for the mood in the federal government every five years in state elections. They even make decisions about the chancellor: in 2005, the SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia lost support – and with it Gerhard Schröder – in the federal government. In 2017, Angela Merkel secured re-election with Armin Laschet’s surprising election victory in North Rhine-Westphalia. Whatever happens in NRW: It affects the mood – also in the federal parties. At least.

>> Also read here: Dispute over Russia policy: Friedrich Merz accuses SPD of “deep entanglements”.

The Sauerland Merz is facing his test: On the one hand there is his role as federal chairman, who wants to give his party a new basic program and value framework. There is the opposition leader in the Bundestag, who shows a clear edge.

But there are also problems in the company’s own ranks: good, top-level personnel are rare, there is a risk of young talent being lost, and the announced “reorganization of personnel” is showing the first signs of cracks. And in the background, the debate about Angela Merkel, who, despite the war in Ukraine and thus in Europe, does not want to comment on her Russia policy, is annoying.

Merz had to digest a defeat, a resignation

And yet: The CDU must defend state chancellery, must win elections: In Schleswig-Holstein on May 8th, in North Rhine-Westphalia on May 15th. In Lower Saxony (October 9th) she wants to appoint the prime minister.

“We win together, we lose together,” Merz explained. That was in March after the crushing defeat of the CDU in Saarland. With the election, the economic liberal Merz also lost Tobias Hans, one of the under-50s in the party, who had a certain notoriety as prime minister and who belongs to the social wing. Hans will soon be just a simple member of the state parliament.

And libertine? “Do what matters,” is his campaign motto. It seems enraptured since “Mallorca-Gate” has been circulating. This is what the SPD, as the opposition, called the fact that Environment Minister Ursula Heinen-Esser celebrated her husband’s birthday with cabinet members on Mallorca a few days after the terrible flood disaster in the Rhineland. Heinen-Esser resigned as Minister a week before Easter. But the image damage remains. And Heinen-Esser continues to be a candidate in the metropolis of Cologne.

The NRW scandal reached the CDU headquarters before Easter like a tsunami. Finally, the party guests included NRW building minister Ina Scharrenbach, member of the executive committee of the federal CDU, and federal executive board member Serap Güler, vice-head of the program commission. Both had to apologize for the misstep.

In addition, Merz was already parting ways with his office manager and head of the management team, Andrea Verpoorten. Like Heinen-Esser, she also comes from Cologne. “The expectations didn’t match,” explained the 48-year-old as she said goodbye. And a spokesman for the CDU leader said: “The “amicable separation” had nothing to do with day-to-day political events in NRW”.

Looking at the situation in NRW, Merz said: “It won’t be easy.”

There is a lack of staff for a fresh start

“Who will be NRW boss if we should lose?” they ask in the party. Names like that of the former Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn or Carsten Linnemann, head of the Basic Program Commission, are circulating.

In view of the personnel problems, the party says: “We have nothing more to offer.” Daniel Günther, who is up for election in Schleswig-Holstein and has a good chance of his first re-election, is considered a safe bet these days. In autumn, Bernd Althusmann will try his luck again in Lower Saxony and, as CDU Economics Minister, will compete against the popular Prime Minister Stephan Weil (SPD). Both sit on the presidium of the federal CDU.

This also includes Michael Kretschmer, the Prime Minister of Saxony. As a friend of Russia, however, he has had one more problem since the war of aggression against Ukraine – in addition to that of Pegida supporters and corona deniers. The 46-year-old can be happy that there was no majority in the Bundestag for compulsory vaccination. That leaves Thuringia’s head of state, Mario Voigt, deputy head of the federal government’s basic program commission. He could cause a surprise in the state elections, which will not be held until 2024.

The Baden-Württemberg CDU leader Thomas Strobl has withdrawn from federal politics, as has Hesse’s Prime Minister Volker Bouffier. Julia Klöckner in Rhineland-Palatinate also only plays the role of treasurer in the federal CDU. In Mainz, Christian Baldauf has taken the lead. He was country manager before Klöckner until 2010.

Where have all the women gone?

And the female following? Merz knows the party has a problem. At the Junge Union’s spring reception in Berlin, he recently told how he asked his general secretary Mario Czaja about an election campaign appearance in Sauerland. “100 people were there, including two women – a wife of a member and a waitress,” Czaja told him. “It can’t stay like this,” says Merz.

>> Also read here: The CDU begins to search for itself

In September, the federal party conference will show how serious he is. Since the pandemic prevented party conferences in person, there has been an application from the Structure and Statutes Commission for a women’s quota. They are all ideas that emerged under party leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Merz has promised not to water it down.

Before that, however, the CDU must exist in NRW. A defeat would be bitter for Merz. Hardly a day goes by when the 66-year-old doesn’t try to redeem what his supporters have chosen him for: the CDU leader attacks the government with clear words. As if on an assembly line, his parliamentary group submits applications or presents the governing coalition, as was the case recently with compulsory vaccination.

After Easter, the question of the 100 billion euro special pot for the Bundeswehr should continue. The Union wants to agree to the amendment to the Basic Law – if it can have a say in what Germany buys with the money in the long term and with legal certainty. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz fears another defeat, which is why he is now warning the opposition to take a “patriotic stance”. Meanwhile, the Union faction is suing against the traffic light budget plans to park the 60 billion euros as a precaution in the energy and climate fund. For the Union, this is against the debt rules.

Merz is still looking for positions himself

However, what sounds like a clear edge is not necessarily so. Merz is also still looking for positions. “We are probably past the peak of our prosperity, at least for a while. It’s getting harder,” he said shortly before Easter. A few weeks earlier, he had announced that he wanted to keep “the last great promise of prosperity made by the CDU”: employee participation in the capital.

And then there is the Russia policy of the CDU under Angela Merkel. Merz has already distanced himself and described it as a big “mistake”, knowing full well that 16 years of CDU government are hanging on him as opposition leader like a millstone. It’s a good thing that he can credibly distance himself, since he hasn’t been part of the Union faction since 2009. However, it is unclear how the CDU will behave in the future.

At the beginning of May, he wants to decide on at least one energy program together with the CSU. It should also contain answers to the energy dependency on Russia. The clear line is still missing, as became clear at the reception of the youth organization in Berlin.

The stage was bathed in Ukrainian blue and yellow while JU boss Tilman Kuban called for an energy embargo. Merz stood at the edge of the stage, listening, his left hand thoughtfully under his chin. He later took the stage, dutifully attacked the government, declared his solidarity with Ukraine, and ended his speech by quoting Pericles, the ancient Greek statesman: “The secret of happiness is freedom. The secret of freedom is courage.” However, courage does not mean “arrogance”, as Merz added. No more energy from Russia from now on? “We have to think very carefully about the consequences for our country.”

And so the CDU under Merz is at the beginning of its reinvention, including problems. To paraphrase Pericles, “It is not a matter of predicting the future, but of being prepared for the future.”

More: Tank discount: The hot air of the liberals.