Moscow Things are not going the way the Kremlin had imagined. Instead of completing the invasion within a few days, the situation for the Russian troops appears increasingly muddled.
And then there are the massive sanctions that are taking threatening forms for the country’s economy. Probably because of these difficulties, among other things, Moscow was now willing to negotiate without preconditions. And so on Monday two delegations from Russia and Ukraine spoke to each other at the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. After five hours, both sides agreed to meet again “in the coming days”.
Meanwhile, the Russians continue to come under pressure in the information war – from videos showing scenes like this: A burned-out Russian military column is parked on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
It hit the tank hard. The tower with the ship’s cannon lies torn down by the side of the road, between the trees there is a shot-up army truck. More and more such videos have appeared in recent days: burning Russian tanks, destroyed military transporters, abandoned petrol trucks, sometimes the corpses of soldiers or prisoners.
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As of Monday, the Russian Ministry of Defense has only admitted two casualties on its own side. The Ukrainian side speaks of 5,300 Russian dead and wounded.
Although the information provided by both sides cannot be verified, it is obvious that Russian losses are significantly higher than the Kremlin had thought. From the photo documents published so far alone, it is clear that the armed forces have lost well over 100 military vehicles.
A Ukrainian soldier walks past a burned bus.
(Photo: dpa)
The high losses and the slow progress have two causes. For one thing, the Ukrainians are putting up fierce resistance that Moscow had not counted on. On the other hand, military strategists speak of dubious tactics used by the Russian armed forces: this was even surprisingly lamented by the self-proclaimed “Putin’s infantryman”, Ramzan Kadyrov.
According to the Chechen ruler, he has sent 12,000 Chechens flying the Russian flag to the neighboring country to fight north of Kyiv as a regiment of the National Guard.
Now he gets angry that the opponent is being approached too “squeamishly”. The towns and villages must finally be liberated from the “Nazis”. “It won’t work with off-road vehicles or Ural trucks alone. He called for “the full coordination of the forces, a professional deployment of the units and a determined assault”.
This is how the Handelsblatt reports on the developments in the Ukraine war:
The Russian units operate illogically, agrees Michael Kofman, a specialist for the Russian armed forces at the Washington-based think tank Center for Naval Analyzes (CNA), which is close to the government. “They drive down the streets in small groups, sending reconnaissance units and paratroopers ahead. Tanks without infantry. Everything is going badly for them,” he analyses.
This gives Ukrainian troops a chance to defeat their enemy. Entire convoys of the Russians were repeatedly ambushed, and time and again they had to give up with insufficient motivation.
But what would be the alternative? Given the military superiority of the Russian armed forces, the battle would be decided within a very short time if artillery and air force were deployed in a coordinated manner.
Action is dangerous
However, a joint, massive strike would have serious side effects: the number of civilian casualties would skyrocket. Kyiv is already reporting over 350 dead civilians. If the cities were shelled, that number would quickly multiply.
This is difficult for Putin to communicate. The Kremlin sells the use as a peace mission to its own people. It serves to protect the Russian-speaking population – especially the people in the Donbass, who, according to Moscow’s interpretation, are oppressed by nationalists in Ukraine. Under this premise, many Russians initially agreed to the mission.
Since Putin declared war, demonstrations have taken place all over the world.
(Photo: Getty Images)
However, the mood is already slowly changing, even within the elite. Not only are protests and petitions against the war increasing. Meanwhile, four Duma deputies who supported recognition of the separatists have condemned the war against Ukraine. The tenor: the recognition was given to end the bombing of Donetsk, but not to bomb Kyiv.
If pictures of destroyed cities and killed civilians actually make the rounds in Russia, Putin is finally threatened with losing the support of his own population. He wants to avoid that at all costs, for example by subjecting the media to strict censorship. But that’s hardly possible in the age of social media.
Putin’s dilemma is that if he continues the fight in the current form, he may end up facing defeat, which could also mean the end of his reign. However, if he changes tactics, the mood could turn against him.
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