Why so many predictions were wrong

Presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey

However, many observers at home and abroad had not predicted that Erdogan would be so clearly ahead, at least in the first ballot.

(Photo: dpa)

Ankara Inflation is at its highest level in more than 20 years, the government is autocratic, civil liberties are restricted – and yet the incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could emerge victorious again from the country’s elections.

However, Turkey’s future head of state will probably only be decided in a run-off election on May 28th. According to preliminary data, two news agencies, one state and one private, close to the opposition, saw the incumbent with around 49.3 percent of the votes early Monday morning (local time) and his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu with a good 45 percent of the votes.

In the parliamentary elections taking place at the same time, Erdogan’s electoral alliance with nationalists in all probability achieved a comfortable majority according to the preliminary count of the state electoral institutes.

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