The steadfast policy that the government is now running is better than its reputation.
(Photo: Getty Images)
In the corona pandemic, Germany is increasingly inclining to self-mortification. The impression is cultivated that the infection rate is always particularly bad in this country. For the protective measures of the federal and state governments, the following basically applies: too little, too late. And so disappointment spreads that politicians have not shut down the whole country long ago as a precaution in view of the risks posed by the Omikron variant.
Sections of the public react to the irrationality of the corona deniers with unreserved approval of any restrictions. The almost imploring appeal #LockdownNow travels regularly on Twitter. A policy that explores between the corona dangers and the lockdown damage, which sometimes hesitates as long as such a weighing is difficult, such a policy is then generally regarded as fearful and unreasonable.
This mood makes rational pandemic management difficult. That has to be based on facts. And after that, the infection rate is currently comparatively moderate in Germany. There are currently few European countries with such a low incidence. In Portugal and Spain it is three to four times as high. The two southern European countries, which were recently hailed as great role models, have now been classified by the federal government as high-risk areas.
Germany has comparatively low incidences
Not to mention France, Great Britain and Denmark, where the incidences are four to seven times higher than in Germany. Currently, this is likely partly due to the limited operation in the health authorities. But in the fourth wave in November, the number of cases in Germany rose rapidly, but remained well below those in many neighboring countries. One can hardly imagine what would be going on in Germany with incidences comparable to those in Belgium, France or Ireland.
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Of course, it is likely that the number of infections in this country will also increase extremely with Omikron. And a responsible policy should not rule out the possibility that in this case it will have to send the country into a lockdown again. That will mainly depend on how much Omikron not only increases the number of infections, but also the number of hospital cases.
So far this is unclear. Data from other states badly affected by Omikron at least suggest that the course will be milder. But there are also model calculations that lead to fear of gloomy scenarios for the intensive care units. However, it is not clear whether they will occur.
In the fourth wave, the modelers were partially wrong. At the end of November, some warned that without lockdown there would soon be 150,000 corona cases a day. In fact, the numbers were already beginning to decline – without a lockdown. Fortunately, the increase in intensive care bed occupancy forecast by the Robert Koch Institute, with a dramatic climax at Christmas, also failed to materialize.
The risk of dulling
Scenarios are always fraught with uncertainty, but they are still important as a warning and in preparation. But worst-case predictions in particular have to be handled carefully so that the population does not become numb. And the question arises even more as to whether politicians should now decide on a precautionary lockdown based on insecure models. In the fourth wave, waiting turned out to be the better solution. It was broken without a lockdown.
Of course, it can be argued that in a pandemic, politicians should rather be on the safe side that they have to get “before the wave”. That sounds good, but what exactly it means is rarely explained. Would there be the desired fast lockdown, when and based on which parameters would it be opened again? And what happens when the incidence numbers rise again?
In all of this, it must be remembered that the population’s willingness to lockdown is finite. Successful containment does not depend primarily on whether a lockdown is welcomed in the media or generally supported in surveys, but on the fact that the vast majority really stick to the rules in everyday life.
This readiness must be maintained, not only now, but also for possible future waves. So far, the pandemic has always presented new, unimagined challenges. And so it is good when politicians do not prematurely shut down the country.
In addition: The currently applicable rules are not as lax as often claimed. When it comes to the so-called Stringency Index, which measures the severity of the corona protective measures, Germany is in the top group internationally. Despite all the inaccuracies in such values, it can be stated that the perception that politicians have so far only been idly watching the pandemic is not true.
More: Omikron could paralyze the industry – should infected people return to work earlier because of this?