People protest in front of the Polish Constitutional Court. According to a ruling by the Polish Constitutional Court, parts of EU law are incompatible with the country’s constitution.
(Photo: dpa)
Brussels Sometimes it is also a good thing that the European institutions are a bit slow. Otherwise Poland’s exit from the EU would probably only be a matter of form. The fact that Poland took this path on Thursday is no exaggeration.
The top of the government and the judiciary no longer want to accept what Poland sealed when it joined the EU and then filled it with life: that it would lose part of its sovereignty and instead become part of something bigger.
But that is precisely the principle of the European Union. That is what makes them so unique, that is what makes them magic: a federation of states that are not only free, but so free that they can give up part of their freedom.
That is too much to ask of the current Polish government. Her subordinate judges ruled on Thursday that it is her own constitution that takes precedence over everything. You can take that view, but then you can’t be part of the EU.
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From the EU’s point of view, it also makes no sense to offer Poland any kind of compromise. If other member states take Poland as an example, the EU will soon be just any institution that issues any recommendations. Then it loses its strength, attraction, and utility to members.
A compromise would also be inappropriate in terms of content. The judges dealt with the issue of constitutional primacy in the first place because the EU is taking action against the dismantling of the independent judiciary in Poland. The judgments of this judiciary are supposed to break EU law, but the government is still above the judiciary. This is how she imagines it, but this is not compatible with the principle of the separation of powers – and therefore not with EU membership either.
What will happen now?
It is particularly tragic that it is judges and politicians who lead their country out of the EU and the Poles, unlike the British at the time, are not asked. However, that does not mean that they will not be heard as the exit approaches.
What will happen now? The EU is now forced to react. She will initiate infringement proceedings. This process will take a few months because the accused state must have time to be heard. At the end of the procedure, the withdrawal of voting rights and penalties can result. If Poland refuses to accept this, the EU Commission can withhold money that Poland would have conceded.
Such a situation could happen earlier. Because payments from another procedure should be due very soon. If the Polish government is determined to evade payment orders from the European Court of Justice anyway, it is more likely to do so.
Without EU money, Poland could quickly face an economic downturn. The money from the Corona recovery fund alone should finance 1.2 percent of GDP over the years. Even the prospect of a lack of agricultural funds from Brussels could spoil the markets. The EU cannot force Poland to leave, but it is also difficult to imagine that Poland would want to remain a member under these circumstances.
A clear majority of Poles want to stay in the EU. It is difficult to predict how this majority will react. Think of the UK, where citizens had to elect a new parliament three times before their decision to leave the EU was finally implemented.
One can now hope for this: That the Poles will decide to restrict the power of their government again – by demanding an independent judiciary and full EU membership.
More: The judges of the Polish Constitutional Court accuse Brussels of exceeding its powers. The conflict with the EU will now come to a head.