Why Alexander Van der Bellen could win

On environmental issues, for example, Van der Bellen is not a fundamentalist. Instead, he presents himself as a person who cares about climate protection and animal welfare. The majority of Austrians can identify with this. In Austria, in contrast to Germany, the Federal President is elected directly by the population. In addition, the President in Austria has more powers.

Incumbent Van der Bellen is currently around 50 percent in polls. In the election next Sunday, the only question is whether he will receive the absolute majority of the votes or whether a second round will be necessary. What is striking and characteristic of the political climate in Austria is who challenges him and, even more so, who lets it be.

Of the three major parties, the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), only the right-wing populist FPÖ has nominated a candidate, the lawyer Walter Rosenkranz. The other five challengers to Van der Bellen are political fringe figures. Like Rosary, three of them cultivate right-wing and diffuse views. So the dissatisfied have a choice, the so-called middle voters, on the other hand, hardly any.

This mixture makes it easy for Van der Bellen to assume the position of solid “Elder Statesman”. In some circles, however, Van der Bellen’s refusal to engage in a televised debate with the competition did not go down well. The conversation would have been polemical, but unlike usual, Van der Bellen would have had to divulge more than presidential admonitions and empty phrases.

Turbulent years lie behind Van der Bellen

Critics therefore consider the absence of the incumbent to be arrogant. Among them is the presidential candidate Dominik Wlazny, known as the rock musician “Marco Pogo” and a local politician in Vienna. “I see no reason why Van der Bellen didn’t take part in the television discussion,” says the 35-year-old.

The Federal President, on the other hand, said the voters knew what he stood for. In fact, Van der Bellen has had a number of opportunities to prove himself over the past turbulent few years. Austria’s politicians have provided him with many a through ball.

The country was severely shaken in May 2019 when the “Ibiza video” appeared. In the covertly recorded material, the then Vice-Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ) promised business partners in exchange for party donations. The “b’offene G’schicht”, as Strache later reluctantly called it, plowed up the political landscape of Austria. Although he was in no way involved in the affair, Van der Bellen apologized in a public address for the shocking picture that politics had painted.

Peace between the institutions was preserved

The next crisis came in October 2021. At that time, it was necessary to manage the change of chancellor from Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) to Alexander Schallenberg (ÖVP). The corruption prosecutors suspected Kurz’s confidants of having bought benevolent reporting with advertisements from a media group, with the Chancellor allegedly inciting them to do so. Van der Bellen made a significant contribution to clarifying the situation by summoning all the chairmen of the parties represented in Parliament to his official seat in Vienna, the Hofburg, for one-on-one meetings.

In at least one respect, Van der Bellen was also the busiest Federal President that Austria has ever had. During his tenure there were four governments and many other changes of ministers. As a result, he had to make around 130 swearing-in oaths in the past six years. The satirical newspaper “Tagespresse” headlined that the Hofburg would receive an oath robot. This relieves Van der Bellen of repetitive work.

Throughout his tenure, the Austrian President has never succumbed to the temptation to portray himself as a power factor – and paradoxically, that is exactly what gives him influence. His reluctance takes pressure off Austria’s political system, which quickly becomes agitated.

At the same time, the peace between the institutions is preserved. Former law professor Manfried Welan explains: “The less the Federal President does, the more popular he is with the big parties ÖVP and SPÖ.”

Not even FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl dares to attack the Federal President harshly. There would have been a reason. In the first Kurz government, Kickl was Minister of the Interior. At Kurz’s request, Van der Bellen dismissed the FPÖ politician as Minister in May 2019. Kickl was the first member of the government in the more than 70-year history of the second republic to experience this fate. Still, Van der Bellen was never targeted by Kickl.

At the same time, the Federal President can hardly hide his dislike of the FPÖ. “The governing party ÖVP should actually be grateful to Van der Bellen,” says constitutional lawyer Welan. “He keeps the FPÖ down.”

The challengers, on the other hand, have a completely different understanding of office than Van der Bellen. Wlazny considers the Federal President to be a moral authority who should intervene more frequently in day-to-day politics than the current incumbent.

The young politician does not see why the Federal President was silent about chat messages that were made public, in which politicians used harsh language about each other and the institutions.

The right-wing candidates, meanwhile, are pursuing a decidedly populist agenda. When a president takes office in Austria, the government formally offers him his resignation. Presidential candidate Michael Brunner from the anti-vaccination party MFG said he would accept it. The Rosencrantz nominated by the FPÖ also indicated that as president he would dismiss the government.

Van der Bellen is also statesmanlike on this issue. “It is part of my understanding of office that I think a hundred times over whether I should simply dismiss a government that has a democratic majority in parliament,” he said recently in an interview with the “Presse”. The task of the Federal President is to ensure stability.

More: The stoppable rise of the right-wing populists